Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Washington Capitals 2, New York Islanders 1
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 19 | 19 | 06 | 224 |
| NYI | 011 | 17 | 07 | 125 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:41WSHJason ChimeraAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Tip-in, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 3:38WSHNicklas BackstromGWGAssists: Alex Ovechkin, John Carlson · Backhand, 0.26 xG2–0
- P2 5:15NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Josh Bailey · Backhand, 0.14 xG2–1
Penalties (8)
- P1 11:32WSHAlex Ovechkin: Hooking2 min
- P1 15:37WSHMike Knuble: Holding2 min
- P1 18:11NYIPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
- P2 6:34WSHJohn Erskine: Holding2 min
- P2 13:21WSHKarl Alzner: Interference2 min
- P3 1:26WSHNicklas Backstrom: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:34NYIMatt Martin: Interference2 min
- P3 9:34WSHMathieu Perreault: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestChimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:18
xG 1.31–0.35 (79%)attempts 18–11goals 2–0
- Steckel – Gordon – King3:14
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Hendricks – Perreault – Beagle7:06
xG 0.12–0.03 (82%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Gordon3:03
xG 0.01–0.10 (7%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAlzner – Carlson11:03
xG 0.73–0.22 (77%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Schultz – Green16:05
xG 0.57–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–12goals 0–0
- Hannan – Erskine10:52
xG 0.42–0.41 (51%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- Comeau – Grabner – Bailey2:55
xG 0.04–0.01 (74%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Konopka – Colliton – Martin3:11
xG 0.17–0.20 (46%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner6:01
xG 0.09–0.30 (22%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Gillies – Konopka – Martin2:16
xG 0.00–0.33 (0%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic12:51
xG 0.61–0.29 (68%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Gervais – Reese7:57
xG 0.04–0.07 (37%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
- Martinek – Gervais2:15
xG 0.02–0.46 (4%)attempts 1–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).