Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Detroit Red Wings 4, St. Louis Blues 3 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 112 | 23 | 013 | 11 | 429 |
| STL | 06 | 110 | 213 | 00 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:25DETPatrick EavesAssists: Henrik Zetterberg · Snap, 0.20 xG1–0
- P2 7:34DETTodd BertuzziAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–0
- P2 9:50DETJakub KindlAssists: Valtteri Filppula, Jiri Hudler · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P2 11:44STLT.J. OshieAssists: Patrik Berglund, Roman Polak · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 6:35STLPatrik BerglundAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Alex Pietrangelo · Snap, 0.07 xG3–2
- P3 14:14STLDavid BackesAssists: Brad Boyes, Alexander Steen · Backhand, 0.08 xG3–3
- OT 1:51DETDarren HelmGWGAssists: Jiri Hudler, Niklas Kronwall · Snap, 0.11 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 5:39STLRyan Reaves: Boarding2 min
- P1 16:24DETJonathan Ericsson: Slashing2 min
- P2 12:02DETJohan Franzen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Zetterberg
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- bestBertuzzi – Filppula – Hudler11:41
xG 0.63–0.55 (54%)attempts 15–12goals 2–2
- Zetterberg – Eaves – Franzen13:12
xG 0.50–0.54 (48%)attempts 12–16goals 1–0
- Abdelkader – Mursak – Tatar5:55
xG 0.10–0.16 (40%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm11:19
xG 0.49–0.66 (42%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRafalski – Ericsson15:07
xG 0.73–0.41 (64%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- Salei – Kindl13:05
xG 0.47–0.50 (48%)attempts 18–9goals 1–1
- Lidstrom – Kronwall16:33
xG 0.66–0.99 (40%)attempts 15–23goals 2–1
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestBoyes – Steen – Backes7:24
xG 0.76–0.17 (81%)attempts 14–3goals 1–0
- Crombeen – Reaves – McRae2:28
xG 0.13–0.02 (85%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement4:22
xG 0.16–0.07 (71%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund13:18
xG 0.60–0.55 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Pietrangelo3:52
xG 0.23–0.15 (61%)attempts 6–4goals 1–0
- Cole – Pietrangelo8:01
xG 0.13–0.22 (38%)attempts 7–8goals 0–0
- Jackman – Cole2:15
xG 0.05–0.16 (24%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it DET. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Detroit Red Wings win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − DET), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).