Thu, Jan 20, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Nashville Predators 5, Colorado Avalanche 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 29 | 07 | 312 | 528 |
| COL | 08 | 012 | 113 | 133 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:15NSHSergei KostitsynAssists: Martin Erat, Marcel Goc · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 16:37NSHCody FransonGWGAssists: Patric Hornqvist, David Legwand · Snap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P3 2:05NSHMatt HalischukAssists: Shane O'Brien, J-P Dumont · Wrap-around, 0.04 xG3–0
- P3 4:22NSHDavid LegwandAssists: Patric Hornqvist, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.04 xG4–0
- P3 9:57NSHColin WilsonAssists: Shea Weber, Kevin Klein · Backhand, 0.09 xG5–0
- P3 16:23COLMatt DucheneAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Stewart · Wrist, 0.37 xG5–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 7:46COLRyan Stoa: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:59NSHShane O'Brien: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P1 18:59COLCody McLeod: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:47COLJohn-Michael Liles: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:02COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 6:38NSHCody Franson: Tripping2 min
- P3 13:18COLDavid Koci: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson11:00
xG 0.56–0.17 (77%)attempts 13–9goals 3–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling8:52
xG 0.29–0.00 (100%)attempts 8–0goals 0–0
- Dumont – Halischuk – Mueller7:08
xG 0.19–0.26 (42%)attempts 6–7goals 1–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn9:53
xG 0.24–0.77 (24%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Brien – Franson10:51
xG 0.59–0.41 (59%)attempts 14–8goals 3–0
- Klein – Sulzer13:56
xG 0.36–0.40 (47%)attempts 11–7goals 2–0
- Sulzer – Franson3:14
xG 0.00–0.77 (0%)attempts 0–11goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stoa – Duchene2:09
xG 0.68–0.10 (87%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Stoa – Stewart – Duchene4:13
xG 0.60–0.04 (94%)attempts 5–3goals 1–1
- Porter – Winnik – McLeod3:59
xG 0.58–0.05 (92%)attempts 6–2goals 0–0
- Jones – Stastny – Stewart2:47
xG 0.09–0.02 (80%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestO'Byrne – Wilson2:52
xG 0.40–0.04 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne13:14
xG 0.58–0.23 (71%)attempts 11–13goals 0–0
- Liles – Shattenkirk3:41
xG 0.19–0.15 (55%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).