Fri, Jan 21, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
New York Islanders 5, Buffalo Sabres 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 210 | 19 | 210 | 529 |
| BUF | 010 | 09 | 219 | 238 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:26NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Rob Schremp · Deflected, 0.06 xG1–0
- P1 10:30NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: Andrew MacDonald, Travis Hamonic · Tip-in, 0.07 xG2–0
- P2 14:35NYIPA ParenteauGWGAssists: John Tavares · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–0
- P3 14:33NYIJack HillenAssists: Blake Comeau, Rob Schremp · Wrist, 0.27 xG4–0
- P3 16:38BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Mike Weber · Backhand, 0.06 xG4–1
- P3 16:43BUFNathan GerbeAssists: Mike Grier · Snap, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 19:58NYIMichael GrabnerENAssists: Kyle Okposo · Wrist, 0.68 xG5–2
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:00BUFSteve Montador: Tripping2 min
- P1 7:10NYIKyle Okposo: Hooking2 min
- P1 10:48NYIFrans Nielsen: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:17NYIJeremy Colliton: Holding2 min
- P3 16:50BUFNathan Gerbe: Slashing2 min
- P3 18:23BUFTim Connolly: Too many men on the ice2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Konopka won the faceoff against Hecht
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestSchremp – Comeau – Bailey10:40
xG 1.05–0.58 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 1–0
- Konopka – Colliton – Martin11:30
xG 0.02–0.13 (13%)attempts 2–10goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:24
xG 0.47–0.59 (44%)attempts 11–14goals 2–2
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:10
xG 0.34–0.59 (37%)attempts 6–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen16:39
xG 1.27–0.77 (62%)attempts 13–23goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic15:51
xG 0.38–0.62 (38%)attempts 15–16goals 2–0
- Gervais – Reese12:26
xG 0.37–0.66 (36%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestNiedermayer – Grier – Ennis4:30
xG 0.29–0.01 (96%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Grier – Gaustad – Gerbe8:02
xG 0.39–0.28 (58%)attempts 12–5goals 1–0
- Gaustad – Kaleta – Gerbe3:52
xG 0.24–0.18 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
- Niedermayer – Connolly – Ennis4:41
xG 0.24–0.23 (51%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMontador – Gragnani2:30
xG 0.19–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Morrisonn – Myers10:49
xG 0.65–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 2–0
- Sekera – Gragnani8:05
xG 0.26–0.15 (64%)attempts 11–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).