Fri, Jan 21, 2011·Scotiabank Place, Ottawa
Montréal Canadiens 7, Ottawa Senators 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MTL | 27 | 315 | 213 | 735 |
| OTT | 112 | 010 | 012 | 134 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:53MTLBenoit PouliotAssists: Mathieu Darche, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 3:45MTLTomas PlekanecGWGAssists: Andrei Kostitsyn · Slap, 0.08 xG2–0
- P1 9:20OTTChris KellyAssists: Chris Campoli, Zack Smith · Backhand, 0.08 xG2–1
- P2 1:12MTLBrian GiontaAssists: Scott Gomez, Max Pacioretty · Snap, 0.17 xG3–1
- P2 5:33MTLMax PaciorettyPPAssists: Scott Gomez, James Wisniewski · Wrist, 0.10 xG4–1
- P2 11:27MTLTomas PlekanecUnassisted · Snap, 0.12 xG5–1
- P3 2:18MTLAndrei KostitsynAssists: Lars Eller, Tomas Plekanec · Wrist, 0.08 xG6–1
- P3 12:43MTLP.K. SubbanPPAssists: James Wisniewski, David Desharnais · Slap, 0.05 xG7–1
Penalties (11)
- P2 4:41OTTZack Smith: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P2 16:18OTTChris Neil: Interference2 min
- P2 19:10MTLYannick Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 19:38MTLHal Gill: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:09MTLMax Pacioretty: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:16OTTChris Phillips: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P3 12:16MTLRyan White: Fighting5 min
- P3 12:16OTTBrian Lee: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:36MTLHal Gill: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:36OTTZack Smith: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:36OTTZack Smith: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Fisher won the faceoff against Plekanec
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestPlekanec – Kostitsyn – Eller11:31
xG 0.79–0.26 (75%)attempts 14–12goals 2–0
- Gomez – Gionta – Pacioretty11:41
xG 0.48–0.13 (78%)attempts 12–6goals 1–1
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais11:00
xG 0.58–0.59 (49%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
- Moen – White – Engqvist8:59
xG 0.09–0.22 (29%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHamrlik – Wisniewski16:44
xG 0.62–0.44 (59%)attempts 13–14goals 1–0
- Gill – Subban14:59
xG 0.90–0.77 (54%)attempts 12–14goals 2–1
- Spacek – Weber14:04
xG 0.42–0.29 (59%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
Ottawa Senators
Forward lines
- bestFoligno – Winchester – Butler4:14
xG 0.10–0.03 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Alfredsson – Michalek – Winchester2:32
xG 0.03–0.02 (60%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Fisher – Smith – Butler2:51
xG 0.01–0.03 (25%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Kovalev – Regin – Shannon7:17
xG 0.05–0.24 (16%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGonchar – Karlsson5:52
xG 0.28–0.11 (72%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Kuba – Lee9:09
xG 0.24–0.16 (60%)attempts 6–3goals 0–1
- Phillips – Lee2:30
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
OTT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line OTT is favoured, below it MTL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 65% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (OTT − MTL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).