Fri, Jan 21, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
Tampa Bay Lightning 2, Florida Panthers 1 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBL | 16 | 05 | 08 | 02 | 1 | 221 |
| FLA | 111 | 09 | 09 | 01 | 0 | 130 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:50FLACory StillmanAssists: Shawn Matthias, Jason Garrison · Wrist, 0.35 xG0–1
- P1 14:05TBLSteve DownieAssists: Steven Stamkos, Martin St. Louis · Snap, 0.06 xG1–1
Shootout
- 1. FLA Mike Santorelli stopped
- 2. TBL Victor Hedman stopped
- 3. FLA Michael Frolik stopped
- 4. TBL Adam Hall stopped
- 5. FLA Stephen Weiss stopped
- 6. TBL Dominic Moore scored
Penalties (10)
- P1 8:01TBLMike Lundin: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:19TBLSean Bergenheim: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:37TBLSimon Gagne: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:28FLADavid Booth: Interference2 min
- P2 18:58TBLBrett Clark: Interference2 min
- P3 2:17TBLSean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 3:11FLAClay Wilson: High sticking2 min
- P3 4:03TBLSimon Gagne: Tripping2 min
- P3 5:19TBLDominic Moore: Hooking2 min
- OT 3:55FLABryan Allen: Penalty shot tripping on breakaway0 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Weiss won the faceoff against Thompson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestHall – Thompson – Tyrell7:24
xG 0.26–0.04 (87%)attempts 10–4goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell4:34
xG 0.11–0.01 (92%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Malone – Moore – Purcell3:17
xG 0.03–0.01 (64%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Bergenheim3:08
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones9:35
xG 0.21–0.07 (74%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
- Jones – Lundin2:40
xG 0.05–0.05 (48%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Clark – Hedman10:38
xG 0.13–0.25 (33%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestStillman – Booth – Matthias6:14
xG 0.71–0.11 (86%)attempts 7–5goals 1–0
- Weiss – Frolik – Dadonov12:01
xG 0.37–0.19 (66%)attempts 12–12goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli4:22
xG 0.03–0.06 (33%)attempts 2–1goals 0–1
- Dvorak – Reasoner – Olesz12:18
xG 0.10–0.19 (33%)attempts 4–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison16:19
xG 1.22–0.36 (77%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Callahan – Ellerby8:52
xG 0.03–0.14 (17%)attempts 3–8goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman16:47
xG 0.11–0.32 (26%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it TBL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 85% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − TBL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).