Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
New Jersey Devils 3, Philadelphia Flyers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 210 | 06 | 16 | 322 |
| PHI | 05 | 110 | 012 | 127 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:25NJDHenrik TallinderUnassisted · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P1 12:12NJDPatrik EliasGWGAssists: Mark Fayne, Brian Rolston · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 19:40PHIJames van RiemsdykAssists: Claude Giroux, Mike Richards · Tip-in, 0.20 xG2–1
- P3 19:18NJDPatrik EliasENAssists: Brian Rolston, Henrik Tallinder · Wrist, 0.68 xG3–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:12NJDPatrik Elias: Holding2 min
- P2 2:39PHIClaude Giroux: High sticking2 min
- P2 8:43PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
- P2 11:25NJDTim Sestito: Roughing2 min
- P2 13:53PHIScott Hartnell: Roughing2 min
- P3 5:06NJDAnton Volchenkov: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:46PHIClaude Giroux: Cross checking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Brière won the faceoff against Arnott
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestKovalchuk – Zajac – Tedenby7:32
xG 0.17–0.01 (93%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Arnott – Mair – Kovalchuk8:13
xG 0.21–0.10 (68%)attempts 9–7goals 1–0
- Clarkson – Sestito – Pelley7:25
xG 0.38–0.49 (43%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus10:48
xG 0.68–0.85 (44%)attempts 11–11goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTallinder – Volchenkov5:38
xG 0.42–0.05 (90%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Greene – Salmela4:54
xG 0.37–0.13 (74%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Fraser – Greene5:12
xG 0.31–0.07 (81%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Giroux – van Riemsdyk2:47
xG 0.33–0.01 (97%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Carter – Giroux – Powe2:25
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino15:46
xG 0.77–0.91 (46%)attempts 22–20goals 0–1
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk6:25
xG 0.15–0.34 (31%)attempts 8–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPronger – Carle13:51
xG 0.78–0.32 (71%)attempts 19–7goals 0–0
- Timonen – Coburn9:52
xG 0.11–0.22 (33%)attempts 9–9goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Coburn3:01
xG 0.00–0.27 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 57% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).