Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Boston Bruins 6, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 219 | 29 | 212 | 640 |
| COL | 18 | 014 | 112 | 234 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:00COLPaul StastnyAssists: Kevin Shattenkirk, Chris Stewart · Deflected, 0.16 xG0–1
- P1 9:20BOSBrad MarchandAssists: Mark Recchi, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–1
- P1 12:00BOSMilan LucicPPAssists: David Krejci, Mark Recchi · Backhand, 0.13 xG2–1
- P2 14:44BOSMark RecchiGWGAssists: Brad Marchand · Wrist, 0.08 xG3–1
- P2 19:04BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Patrice Bergeron · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–1
- P3 1:41COLKevin ShattenkirkAssists: Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 9:56BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Johnny Boychuk · Backhand, 0.14 xG5–2
- P3 18:25BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Gregory Campbell, Andrew Ference · Wrist, 0.45 xG6–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 2:57COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P1 2:57BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:40COLRyan O'Byrne: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P1 15:51COLRyan O'Byrne: Interference2 min
- P2 5:26COLAdam Foote: Cross checking2 min
- P2 5:26BOSDavid Krejci: Cross checking2 min
- P2 10:27COLChris Stewart: Boarding2 min
- P2 15:12BOSGregory Campbell: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:30BOSMichael Ryder: Hooking2 min
- P3 17:08COLDavid Koci: Misconduct10 min
- P3 17:08BOSDennis Seidenberg: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Galiardi won the faceoff against Bergeron
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRecchi – Bergeron – Marchand8:56
xG 1.27–0.12 (92%)attempts 20–4goals 3–0
- Ryder – Campbell – Horton3:46
xG 0.62–0.34 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Krejci – Lucic – Seguin10:28
xG 0.35–0.16 (68%)attempts 15–5goals 0–0
- Savard – Ryder – Horton5:34
xG 0.15–0.19 (44%)attempts 4–4goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestChara – Kampfer11:36
xG 0.82–0.05 (95%)attempts 17–3goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Kampfer4:14
xG 0.68–0.21 (76%)attempts 6–4goals 0–1
- Ference – McQuaid10:12
xG 0.68–0.33 (67%)attempts 15–3goals 0–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestDupuis – Winnik – McLeod3:04
xG 0.33–0.09 (78%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Porter – Winnik – Galiardi3:21
xG 0.17–0.08 (68%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stewart – Duchene3:05
xG 0.14–0.17 (46%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Stastny – Stoa – Stewart8:07
xG 0.27–0.36 (43%)attempts 5–9goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Hunwick5:43
xG 0.18–0.05 (78%)attempts 6–3goals 0–0
- Hunwick – Shattenkirk9:10
xG 0.28–0.52 (35%)attempts 5–9goals 1–0
- Foote – Cumiskey9:43
xG 0.08–0.40 (16%)attempts 3–14goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it BOS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 66% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − BOS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).