Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
Washington Capitals 4, Toronto Maple Leafs 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 111 | 012 | 38 | 431 |
| TOR | 06 | 011 | 119 | 136 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:27WSHAlex OvechkinAssists: Jeff Schultz, Nicklas Backstrom · Slap, 0.21 xG1–0
- P3 1:12WSHAlex OvechkinGWGAssists: Mike Green, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–0
- P3 2:52TORTim BrentAssists: Jay Rosehill, Dion Phaneuf · Snap, 0.11 xG2–1
- P3 8:14WSHMatt HendricksUnassisted · Backhand, 0.07 xG3–1
- P3 19:36WSHAlex OvechkinENAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Wrist, 0.65 xG4–1
Penalties (7)
- P1 1:32WSHMike Knuble: Tripping2 min
- P1 3:43TORMikhail Grabovski: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:48TORMike Brown: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:48WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:58WSHNicklas Backstrom: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:18WSHNicklas Backstrom: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:19TORKris Versteeg: Too many men on the ice2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Perreault won the faceoff against Bozak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestHendricks – Steckel – Gordon2:52
xG 0.22–0.00 (100%)attempts 7–1goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:38
xG 0.58–0.37 (61%)attempts 14–16goals 2–0
- Steckel – Gordon – King3:15
xG 0.28–0.14 (67%)attempts 3–2goals 0–0
- Knuble – Laich – Johansson10:06
xG 0.15–0.12 (56%)attempts 5–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSchultz – Green16:09
xG 0.95–0.21 (82%)attempts 19–16goals 3–0
- Hannan – Erskine13:01
xG 0.18–0.31 (37%)attempts 7–17goals 0–1
- Alzner – Carlson14:05
xG 0.22–0.51 (30%)attempts 10–19goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestBrent – Rosehill – Brown3:39
xG 0.13–0.08 (63%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
- Crabb – Kessel – Bozak10:03
xG 0.34–0.37 (48%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg8:48
xG 0.23–0.30 (43%)attempts 12–10goals 0–1
- MacArthur – Grabovski – Kulemin11:48
xG 0.08–0.35 (19%)attempts 11–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBeauchemin – Phaneuf15:09
xG 0.48–0.34 (59%)attempts 21–14goals 1–1
- Kaberle – Gunnarsson2:49
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson4:04
xG 0.10–0.10 (50%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).