Sat, Jan 22, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
Carolina Hurricanes 2, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 06 | 08 | 212 | 226 |
| PIT | 08 | 110 | 213 | 331 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 17:14PITDustin JeffreyAssists: Brooks Orpik · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P3 2:22PITMark LetestuPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Kris Letang · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 7:28PITPascal DupuisSHGWGAssists: Jordan Staal, Paul Martin · Backhand, 0.11 xG0–3
- P3 15:35CARSergei SamsonovAssists: Jiri Tlusty · Snap, 0.06 xG1–3
- P3 19:02CAREric StaalAssists: Joe Corvo, Joni Pitkanen · Wrist, 0.31 xG2–3
Penalties (15)
- P1 11:21CARSergei Samsonov: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 16:00PITZbynek Michalek: Holding2 min
- P2 10:52PITChris Conner: Holding2 min
- P2 13:48CARJay Harrison: Interference2 min
- P2 13:48PITChris Kunitz: Diving2 min
- P2 16:02PITChris Conner: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 16:20CARJamie McBain: Interference2 min
- P3 2:03CARErik Cole: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 6:43PITBrooks Orpik: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:51CARTuomo Ruutu: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P3 15:54PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54PITChris Kunitz: Roughing2 min
- P3 15:54CARJeff Skinner: Roughing2 min
- P3 0:00CAREric Staal: Misconduct10 min
- P3 0:00PITBrooks Orpik: Misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner6:07
xG 0.53–0.28 (65%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – Jokinen – Skinner3:20
xG 0.29–0.15 (66%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Dwyer – Sutter5:50
xG 0.22–0.20 (53%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Bodie – Tlusty – Carter3:11
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – White5:40
xG 0.51–0.31 (62%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Pitkanen – McBain11:09
xG 0.45–0.27 (63%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Corvo – Pitkanen2:13
xG 0.02–0.02 (49%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner4:47
xG 0.33–0.05 (86%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Letestu7:16
xG 0.14–0.03 (83%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal5:39
xG 0.12–0.12 (50%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Asham – Adams – Jeffrey6:07
xG 0.19–0.38 (33%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGoligoski – Lovejoy8:39
xG 0.40–0.11 (79%)attempts 10–6goals 0–0
- Orpik – Letang14:47
xG 0.49–0.25 (66%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek11:57
xG 0.13–0.43 (23%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).