Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
New York Rangers 3, Atlanta Thrashers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 011 | 111 | 17 | 02 | 1 | 331 |
| ATL | 110 | 19 | 03 | 00 | 0 | 222 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:47ATLNik AntropovAssists: Toby Enstrom, Tim Stapleton · Tip-in, 0.31 xG0–1
- P2 2:43NYRWojtek WolskiAssists: Derek Stepan, Dan Girardi · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P2 18:01ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Bryan Little, Andrew Ladd · Wrist, 0.19 xG1–2
- P3 14:41NYRBrian BoyleAssists: Kris Newbury, Michael Sauer · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. ATL Bryan Little stopped
- 2. NYR Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 3. ATL Nik Antropov stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello scored
- 5. ATL Niclas Bergfors stopped
Penalties (7)
- P1 18:24NYRMarc Staal: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 8:08ATLAndrew Ladd: Fighting5 min
- P2 8:08NYRDan Girardi: Fighting5 min
- P2 18:47NYRArtem Anisimov: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:51ATLBryan Little: Holding2 min
- P3 5:27ATLBrent Sopel: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:59NYRChad Kolarik: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Anisimov won the faceoff against Peverley
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestWolski – Stepan – Zuccarello11:07
xG 0.69–0.21 (77%)attempts 14–4goals 1–0
- Drury – Newbury – Dupont5:13
xG 0.18–0.05 (79%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Newbury – Boyle – Kolarik2:28
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Avery – Gaborik – Anisimov14:16
xG 0.23–0.46 (34%)attempts 13–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – Gilroy12:05
xG 0.64–0.08 (89%)attempts 13–7goals 1–0
- Staal – Sauer4:27
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Sauer – McDonagh3:08
xG 0.13–0.14 (49%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestLadd – Peverley – Bergfors11:08
xG 0.77–0.11 (87%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Antropov – Dawes – Stapleton8:01
xG 0.41–0.06 (87%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
- Stewart – Little – Cormier12:36
xG 0.46–0.30 (61%)attempts 6–12goals 0–0
- Boulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov6:56
xG 0.11–0.55 (17%)attempts 4–8goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEnstrom – Byfuglien14:27
xG 0.74–0.41 (65%)attempts 13–12goals 1–1
- Sopel – Oduya17:45
xG 0.68–0.62 (52%)attempts 9–18goals 1–0
- Hainsey – Meyer11:25
xG 0.28–0.48 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).