Sat, Jan 22, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Los Angeles Kings 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAK | 314 | 07 | 112 | 433 |
| PHX | 18 | 28 | 010 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 1:22LAKJustin WilliamsAssists: Ryan Smyth · Wrist, 0.16 xG1–0
- P1 7:31LAKDrew DoughtyAssists: Anze Kopitar, Brad Richardson · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P1 13:33LAKAlec MartinezAssists: Matt Greene · Slap, 0.06 xG3–0
- P1 14:25PHXLee StempniakAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Eric Belanger · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–1
- P2 3:05PHXMartin HanzalPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Backhand, 0.13 xG3–2
- P2 18:17PHXLee StempniakAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.02 xG3–3
- P3 4:57LAKJarret StollGWGAssists: Ryan Smyth, Jack Johnson · Backhand, 0.36 xG4–3
Penalties (5)
- P1 5:19PHXSami Lepisto: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:41LAKAlexei Ponikarovsky: Holding2 min
- P2 1:16LAKRyan Smyth: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 7:14PHXChris Summers: Holding2 min
- P3 15:37PHXLee Stempniak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Kopitar won the faceoff against Hanzal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Los Angeles Kings
Forward lines
- bestSmyth – Williams – Stoll10:12
xG 0.86–0.28 (76%)attempts 11–6goals 2–1
- Brown – Kopitar – Loktionov13:04
xG 0.32–0.14 (70%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Lewis – Simmonds – Clifford7:17
xG 0.47–0.35 (58%)attempts 8–9goals 1–1
- Handzus – Ponikarovsky – Richardson9:31
xG 0.31–0.20 (62%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestScuderi – Johnson15:01
xG 0.91–0.39 (70%)attempts 13–15goals 1–2
- Greene – Martinez12:11
xG 0.64–0.30 (68%)attempts 19–10goals 2–0
- Mitchell – Doughty17:15
xG 0.48–0.46 (51%)attempts 13–12goals 1–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBissonnette – Korpikoski – Boedker2:55
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Turris6:13
xG 0.24–0.21 (54%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Bissonnette – Turris – Boedker2:00
xG 0.00–0.10 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Korpikoski2:58
xG 0.04–0.16 (20%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Lepisto2:04
xG 0.20–0.09 (69%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson3:59
xG 0.14–0.04 (79%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Lepisto – Yandle3:15
xG 0.09–0.05 (64%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it LAK. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Los Angeles Kings win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − LAK), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).