Sat, Jan 22, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Minnesota Wild 3, San Jose Sharks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 17 | 110 | 19 | 326 |
| SJS | 17 | 225 | 110 | 442 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:33SJSLogan CoutureAssists: Jason Demers · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 13:19MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Brent Burns · Slap, 0.16 xG1–1
- P2 3:56SJSDevin SetoguchiAssists: Patrick Marleau, Dan Boyle · Slap, 0.19 xG1–2
- P2 6:36SJSDevin SetoguchiPPAssists: Joe Pavelski, Patrick Marleau · Tip-in, 0.14 xG1–3
- P2 7:27MINMikko KoivuPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Brent Burns · Backhand, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 3:57SJSBenn FerrieroGWGAssists: Joe Thornton, Jamie McGinn · Wrist, 0.22 xG2–4
- P3 16:35MINBrent BurnsAssists: Cal Clutterbuck, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.05 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 6:04MINMatt Cullen: Hooking2 min
- P1 12:21SJSDouglas Murray: Cross checking2 min · PPG
- P1 13:09SJSBenn Ferriero: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:42SJSLogan Couture: High sticking2 min
- P2 1:45MINClayton Stoner: High sticking2 min
- P2 5:43MINClayton Stoner: Holding the stick2 min · PPG
- P2 6:54SJSNiclas Wallin: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P2 14:52SJSJoe Pavelski: Tripping2 min
- P3 0:30SJSDany Heatley: Holding2 min
- P3 0:00MINAndrew Brunette: Boarding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Cullen won the faceoff against Couture
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- Madden – Kobasew – Staubitz2:26
xG 0.04–0.04 (52%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom2:12
xG 0.02–0.07 (21%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
- Brunette – Miettinen – Koivu8:19
xG 0.00–0.16 (0%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
- Havlat – Brodziak – Clutterbuck8:40
xG 0.27–0.70 (28%)attempts 10–15goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Burns3:27
xG 0.23–0.09 (71%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns4:14
xG 0.08–0.19 (30%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Barker – Spurgeon9:07
xG 0.56–1.04 (35%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestMayers – Eager – McCarthy3:34
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Pavelski11:05
xG 0.60–0.04 (93%)attempts 12–5goals 0–0
- Wellwood – McGinn – Ferriero10:43
xG 0.43–0.12 (78%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Heatley – Setoguchi – Couture12:01
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Demers12:37
xG 1.44–0.36 (80%)attempts 20–11goals 2–0
- Huskins – Vlasic14:59
xG 0.66–0.16 (81%)attempts 14–12goals 0–0
- Boyle – Murray14:16
xG 0.74–0.38 (66%)attempts 16–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 80% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).