Sun, Jan 23, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Buffalo Sabres 5, New York Islanders 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUF | 110 | 15 | 38 | 523 |
| NYI | 010 | 217 | 17 | 334 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:15BUFPaul GaustadAssists: Rob Niedermayer, Mike Grier · Tip-in, 0.23 xG1–0
- P2 1:15NYIMatt MoulsonPPAssists: John Tavares · Snap, 0.46 xG1–1
- P2 4:58BUFTyler EnnisAssists: Jochen Hecht, Jason Pominville · Backhand, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 13:27NYIMatt MoulsonAssists: PA Parenteau, John Tavares · Tip-in, 0.14 xG2–2
- P3 1:48BUFNathan GerbePPAssists: Tyler Ennis, Tyler Myers · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 3:51BUFTyler MyersGWGAssists: Nathan Gerbe, Paul Byron · Tip-in, 0.19 xG4–2
- P3 16:37NYIJack HillenAssists: Michael Grabner, Frans Nielsen · Wrist, 0.02 xG4–3
- P3 19:36BUFJason PominvilleENAssists: Steve Montador, Jordan Leopold · Wrist, 0.60 xG5–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 6:15BUFPaul Gaustad: Hooking2 min
- P2 0:14BUFTyler Myers: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
- P2 14:00BUFJochen Hecht: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 18:07NYIJosh Bailey: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 2:00NYIJohn Tavares: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:00BUFPaul Gaustad: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Schremp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestMcCormick – Ellis – Byron5:08
xG 0.62–0.14 (81%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gaustad – Vanek – Gerbe2:31
xG 0.25–0.03 (90%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
- Hecht – Pominville – Ennis10:08
xG 0.32–0.25 (57%)attempts 5–11goals 1–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad5:28
xG 0.27–0.22 (55%)attempts 3–7goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestGragnani – Myers3:19
xG 1.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 12–0goals 1–0
- Sekera – Weber11:09
xG 0.67–0.19 (77%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Sekera – Gragnani2:51
xG 0.00–0.13 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestParenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:50
xG 0.54–0.23 (70%)attempts 15–4goals 1–0
- Nielsen – Okposo – Grabner10:08
xG 0.24–0.35 (40%)attempts 11–7goals 1–0
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey12:51
xG 0.51–0.64 (44%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- Konopka – Colliton – Martin6:29
xG 0.00–0.62 (0%)attempts 4–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen16:14
xG 0.63–0.55 (53%)attempts 17–12goals 1–1
- MacDonald – Hamonic14:20
xG 0.59–0.68 (46%)attempts 17–12goals 1–0
- Gervais – Reese12:08
xG 0.27–0.62 (30%)attempts 12–7goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it BUF. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − BUF), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).