Sun, Jan 23, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Atlanta Thrashers 1, Tampa Bay Lightning 7
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 013 | 04 | 15 | 122 |
| TBL | 014 | 516 | 29 | 739 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 0:14TBLNate ThompsonSHUnassisted · Snap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:56TBLDana TyrellGWGAssists: Dominic Moore, Pavel Kubina · Snap, 0.02 xG0–2
- P2 5:39TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Mike Lundin · Tip-in, 0.10 xG0–3
- P2 10:05TBLMartin St. LouisAssists: Steve Downie · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–4
- P2 17:40TBLSimon GagneAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–5
- P3 5:32TBLPavel KubinaAssists: Teddy Purcell · Slap, 0.02 xG0–6
- P3 10:56TBLSimon GagnePPAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Teddy Purcell · Wrist, 0.36 xG0–7
- P3 15:57ATLRich PeverleyAssists: Niclas Bergfors · Snap, 0.04 xG1–7
Penalties (6)
- P1 12:53TBLMattias Ohlund: High sticking2 min
- P1 19:11TBLSteve Downie: Roughing2 min
- P3 9:19ATLTim Stapleton: Interference goalkeeper2 min · PPG
- P3 10:25ATLRich Peverley: Cross checking2 min
- P3 10:25ATLRich Peverley: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:25TBLDominic Moore: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stamkos won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestBoulton – Thorburn – Burmistrov10:30
xG 0.30–0.15 (67%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Modin – Peverley – Bergfors12:24
xG 0.39–0.63 (39%)attempts 15–16goals 1–1
- Stewart – Little – Cormier12:11
xG 0.02–0.43 (4%)attempts 4–13goals 0–1
- Antropov – Dawes – Stapleton11:06
xG 0.42–1.01 (29%)attempts 11–13goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Sopel – Meyer12:19
xG 0.57–0.79 (42%)attempts 15–14goals 1–4
- Hainsey – Bogosian16:39
xG 0.44–0.66 (40%)attempts 14–16goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Byfuglien3:36
xG 0.00–0.26 (0%)attempts 1–5goals 0–1
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Bergenheim – Ritola10:01
xG 0.84–0.02 (97%)attempts 18–2goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos11:39
xG 0.78–0.16 (83%)attempts 18–7goals 2–1
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell12:36
xG 0.90–0.45 (66%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell11:13
xG 0.05–0.40 (10%)attempts 3–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestOhlund – Lundin13:58
xG 0.92–0.24 (79%)attempts 15–13goals 2–0
- Kubina – Jones14:49
xG 0.83–0.32 (72%)attempts 14–12goals 1–0
- Clark – Hedman13:53
xG 0.67–0.28 (71%)attempts 24–8goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Tampa Bay Lightning win this game 89% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).