Sun, Jan 23, 2011·Rexall Place, Edmonton
Nashville Predators 3, Edmonton Oilers 2 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 15 | 07 | 114 | 02 | 1 | 328 |
| EDM | 05 | 09 | 26 | 04 | 0 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 11:53NSHAlexander SulzerAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Cody Franson · Snap, 0.14 xG1–0
- P3 2:03EDMAndrew CoglianoAssists: Liam Reddox, Theo Peckham · Backhand, 0.11 xG1–1
- P3 14:05NSHJoel WardPPAssists: Alexander Sulzer, Cody Franson · Tip-in, 0.09 xG2–1
- P3 16:13EDMTaylor HallAssists: Dustin Penner, Jim Vandermeer · Snap, 0.10 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. EDM Linus Omark stopped
- 2. NSH Marcel Goc stopped
- 3. EDM Sam Gagner stopped
- 4. NSH Cody Franson scored
- 5. EDM Taylor Hall stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:51EDMJim Vandermeer: Interference2 min
- P1 9:46NSHAlexander Sulzer: Holding2 min
- P1 13:17EDMZack Stortini: Charging2 min
- P1 17:33NSHWade Belak: Roughing2 min
- P2 3:37EDMTheo Peckham: Holding2 min
- P2 9:51NSHWade Belak: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:10EDMLadislav Smid: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 19:14EDMTheo Peckham: Hooking2 min
- OT 1:21NSHRyan Suter: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Horcoff won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestSmithson – Ward – Spaling9:05
xG 0.59–0.04 (93%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn12:38
xG 0.39–0.45 (46%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson10:47
xG 0.15–0.30 (33%)attempts 11–5goals 0–1
- Belak – Dumont – Mueller2:18
xG 0.00–0.28 (0%)attempts 0–4goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber17:07
xG 0.28–0.20 (58%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
- Klein – Sulzer11:12
xG 0.63–0.66 (49%)attempts 13–10goals 0–1
- O'Brien – Franson8:06
xG 0.22–0.30 (42%)attempts 11–7goals 0–1
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Penner – Hall13:38
xG 0.47–0.26 (64%)attempts 10–14goals 1–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano9:39
xG 0.26–0.14 (65%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi13:58
xG 0.60–0.54 (53%)attempts 14–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Foster9:23
xG 0.47–0.15 (75%)attempts 7–9goals 0–0
- Gilbert – Peckham13:14
xG 0.36–0.19 (65%)attempts 7–13goals 1–0
- Smid – Petry16:00
xG 0.44–0.44 (50%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
EDM's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line EDM is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (EDM − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).