Mon, Jan 24, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
St. Louis Blues 3, Colorado Avalanche 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 09 | 27 | 18 | 324 |
| COL | 015 | 29 | 28 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 1:21COLBrandon YipAssists: Ryan Wilson · Snap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P2 7:52STLJay McClementAssists: Brad Boyes, Brad Winchester · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–1
- P2 13:08STLEric BrewerAssists: Brad Boyes, Jay McClement · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 17:06COLBrandon YipPPAssists: Paul Stastny, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrap-around, 0.13 xG2–2
- P3 10:34COLKevin ShattenkirkPPAssists: John-Michael Liles, Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 11:18COLRyan StoaGWGAssists: Adam Foote, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.17 xG2–4
- P3 18:33STLDavid BackesAssists: Patrik Berglund, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
Penalties (9)
- P1 1:41STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:41COLDavid Koci: Fighting5 min
- P1 8:21COLBrandon Yip: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:47STLMatt D'Agostini: Tripping2 min
- P2 4:52STLStefan Della Rovere: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:54STLB.J. Crombeen: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 4:48COLRyan Wilson: Interference2 min
- P3 7:28STLBrad Boyes: High sticking double minor4 min · PPG
- P3 14:40COLBrandon Yip: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against. Shift data for this game is incomplete, so treat these as rough.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestJanssen – D'Agostini – Della Rovere2:00
xG 0.16–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boyes – Winchester – McClement9:22
xG 0.46–0.32 (59%)attempts 8–8goals 2–1
- Steen – Backes – D'Agostini2:30
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Oshie – Sobotka – Berglund9:23
xG 0.20–0.29 (41%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Polak13:43
xG 0.93–0.11 (90%)attempts 19–4goals 2–1
- Johnson – Pietrangelo15:58
xG 0.39–0.36 (52%)attempts 11–12goals 0–0
- Strachan – Nikitin7:52
xG 0.14–1.49 (9%)attempts 7–9goals 0–1
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Jones – Duchene10:19
xG 1.43–0.12 (92%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
- Yip – Stastny – Stoa5:50
xG 0.28–0.10 (75%)attempts 4–8goals 1–0
- Stastny – Stoa – Stewart3:51
xG 0.02–0.11 (16%)attempts 1–2goals 0–1
- Winnik – McLeod – Galiardi4:49
xG 0.14–0.27 (34%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – O'Byrne15:03
xG 1.48–0.45 (77%)attempts 13–15goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk9:28
xG 0.40–0.33 (55%)attempts 7–7goals 1–0
- Foote – Cumiskey12:01
xG 0.28–0.36 (44%)attempts 4–13goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Colorado Avalanche win this game 81% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).