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Ice Lab

Mon, Jan 24, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver

Dallas Stars 1, Vancouver Canucks 7

Away

Dallas Stars

1

Final

Home

Vancouver Canucks

7

Expected result

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.

VAN winsDAL wins

By period

Goals and shots on goal in each period.

TeamP1P2P3Total
DAL1100709126
VAN312212212736

Goals, with shots on goal in grey.

Scoring

Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.

  1. P1 1:18VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Daniel Sedin, Keith Ballard · Slap, 0.02 xG0–1
  2. P1 7:19DALBrad RichardsAssists: James Neal · Backhand, 0.12 xG1–1
  3. P1 9:05VANRyan KeslerPPGWGAssists: Alexander Edler, Henrik Sedin · Deflected, 0.20 xG1–2
  4. P1 10:26VANChristian EhrhoffPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Slap, 0.06 xG1–3
  5. P2 3:57VANMikael SamuelssonAssists: Ryan Kesler, Mason Raymond · Wrist, 0.06 xG1–4
  6. P2 11:28VANHenrik SedinAssists: Aaron Volpatti, Raffi Torres · Wrist, 0.20 xG1–5
  7. P3 11:05VANMason RaymondAssists: Alexander Edler, Mikael Samuelsson · Deflected, 0.01 xG1–6
  8. P3 13:12VANDan HamhuisPPAssists: Jeff Tambellini, Chris Tanev · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–7
Penalties (21)
  1. P1 8:17DALJamie Benn: High sticking2 min · PPG
  2. P1 9:13VANKevin Bieksa: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
  3. P1 9:13DALAdam Burish: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min · PPG
  4. P1 9:41DALMark Fistric: Tripping2 min
  5. P1 17:20DALTrevor Daley: Hooking2 min
  6. P2 7:11VANJeff Tambellini: Interference2 min
  7. P2 13:27VANAlexandre Burrows: Holding the stick2 min
  8. P2 14:43DALBrenden Morrow: Charging2 min
  9. P2 15:27VANKevin Bieksa: Interference2 min
  10. P2 17:28DALBrenden Morrow: Interference2 min
  11. P2 19:56VANDan Hamhuis: Tripping2 min
  12. P3 6:59VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
  13. P3 6:59VANDan Hamhuis: Roughing2 min
  14. P3 6:59DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
  15. P3 6:59DALMike Ribeiro: Roughing2 min
  16. P3 12:16VANKeith Ballard: Roughing2 min
  17. P3 12:16VANAlexandre Burrows: Misconduct10 min
  18. P3 12:16DALAdam Burish: Roughing2 min · PPG
  19. P3 12:16DALAdam Burish: Misconduct10 min
  20. P3 12:16DALKrys Barch: Roughing2 min
  21. P3 19:55DALSteve Ott: High sticking2 min

Replay

Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.

DAL00 SOG · 0.0 xG

20:00

P1

0.0 xG · 0 SOG0VAN
47% to win53% to win
← DAL attackVAN attack →
  1. P1 20:00Ott won the faceoff against Malhotra
  • Goal
  • Shot
  • Miss
  • Block
  • Hit
  • Takeaway
  • Giveaway
  • Faceoff
  • Penalty

The numbers

Team totals, side by side.

DALVAN
26Shots on goal36
1.5Expected goals2.1
45Shot attempts61
25Faceoffs won40
4Power plays6
32Penalty minutes26
30Hits23
14Blocked shots11
3Giveaways9
3Takeaways8

Line combinations that worked

Model-based

Each team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.

Dallas Stars

Forward lines

  1. bestOtt – Burish – Benn3:16

    xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0

  2. Richards – Eriksson – Neal10:43

    xG 0.26–0.14 (64%)attempts 7–8goals 1–1

  3. Langenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro3:57

    xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0

  4. Morrow – Ribeiro – Benn2:25

    xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0

Defence pairs

  1. bestRobidas – Grossmann12:15

    xG 0.30–0.12 (72%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0

  2. Daley – Niskanen7:46

    xG 0.30–0.13 (71%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0

  3. Skrastins – Daley2:28

    xG 0.11–0.01 (95%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0

Vancouver Canucks

Forward lines

  1. bestSamuelsson – Kesler – Raymond7:30

    xG 0.08–0.01 (84%)attempts 4–3goals 2–0

  2. Malhotra – Tambellini – Hansen7:51

    xG 0.08–0.04 (65%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0

  3. Torres – Glass – Volpatti5:36

    xG 0.00–0.04 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0

  4. Sedin – Sedin – Burrows7:27

    xG 0.15–0.49 (24%)attempts 8–11goals 1–1

Defence pairs

  1. bestEdler – Tanev2:20

    xG 0.20–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 1–0

  2. Ballard – Tanev10:58

    xG 0.18–0.09 (66%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0

  3. Bieksa – Ballard2:36

    xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0

How the game flowed

Model-based

Chance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.

Expected goals flow

Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.

VAN 2.1 xGDAL 1.5 xG
00.511.52P1P2P3EndxG

Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute

VANDAL

Win probability

Model-based

How each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.

Win probability

VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.

Excitement 25/100 · #866 of 1230 this seasonSwing 0.80 · 5 goals in reachComeback index 52% (winner's lowest chance)
DAL 100%5050%50VAN 100%P1P2P3EndBiggest swing +15 pts

Did the better team win?

Model-based

Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.

Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 61% of the time.

VAN winsDAL wins

Simulated goal difference (VAN − DAL), 10,000 replays

-7
-6
-5
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
+1
+2
+3
+4
+5
+6
+7

The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).