Tue, Jan 25, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Anaheim Ducks 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 28 | 09 | 15 | 322 |
| CBJ | 112 | 012 | 113 | 237 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:12ANATeemu SelannePPAssists: Bobby Ryan, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–0
- P1 5:13ANACam FowlerPPAssists: Lubomir Visnovsky, Saku Koivu · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 17:42CBJRick NashPPAssists: Derick Brassard, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.14 xG2–1
- P3 4:38ANAJason BlakeGWGAssists: Saku Koivu, Teemu Selanne · Backhand, 0.09 xG3–1
- P3 9:54CBJDerick BrassardPPAssists: Jakub Voracek, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.13 xG3–2
Penalties (8)
- P1 3:42CBJDerek Dorsett: Boarding5 min · PPG
- P1 11:07ANAGeorge Parros: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:32CBJJared Boll: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:32ANAGeorge Parros: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P1 15:42ANAToni Lydman: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:38ANAAndy Sutton: High sticking2 min
- P3 6:54ANAToni Lydman: Cross checking2 min
- P3 9:47ANALubomir Visnovsky: Hooking2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Koivu won the faceoff against Brassard
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake13:57
xG 0.41–0.29 (59%)attempts 5–10goals 1–0
- Marchant – Parros – Sexton4:16
xG 0.15–0.14 (53%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Perry – Ryan – McMillan9:14
xG 0.15–0.32 (32%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Lupul – Lapierre – Beleskey6:12
xG 0.12–0.80 (13%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler2:16
xG 0.27–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Lilja – Fowler13:07
xG 0.48–0.21 (70%)attempts 8–11goals 1–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky18:28
xG 0.21–0.53 (28%)attempts 7–12goals 0–0
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestMacKenzie – Boll – Calvert6:10
xG 0.44–0.01 (97%)attempts 8–1goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek12:52
xG 0.55–0.33 (63%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Pahlsson – Murray – Dorsett8:25
xG 0.11–0.25 (29%)attempts 9–6goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger10:49
xG 0.15–0.45 (25%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Clitsome6:49
xG 0.24–0.12 (67%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Hejda – Stralman14:59
xG 0.59–0.55 (52%)attempts 15–14goals 0–0
- Tyutin – Methot11:37
xG 0.31–0.27 (53%)attempts 13–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Columbus Blue Jackets win this game 71% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).