Tue, Jan 25, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Edmonton Oilers 4, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 09 | 114 | 312 | 435 |
| PHX | 19 | 110 | 18 | 327 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 5:27PHXScottie UpshallPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Lee Stempniak · Slap, 0.03 xG0–1
- P2 1:54PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Ray Whitney, Keith Yandle · Wrist, 0.08 xG0–2
- P2 7:11EDMJean-Francois JacquesAssists: Zack Stortini, Kurtis Foster · Tip-in, 0.32 xG1–2
- P3 2:56EDMTaylor HallPPAssists: Shawn Horcoff, Jeff Petry · Wrist, 0.10 xG2–2
- P3 4:08EDMLinus OmarkAssists: Sam Gagner, Magnus Paajarvi · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–2
- P3 8:29PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Shane Doan, Kyle Turris · Wrist, 0.07 xG3–3
- P3 19:38EDMDustin PennerGWGAssists: Taylor Hall, Shawn Horcoff · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 4:57EDMShawn Horcoff: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 15:32EDMTaylor Hall: Tripping2 min
- P2 15:48PHXLauri Korpikoski: Tripping2 min
- P3 1:36PHXMartin Hanzal: Interference2 min · PPG
- P3 5:06PHXPaul Bissonnette: High sticking2 min
- P3 19:49EDMTheo Peckham: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Cogliano
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Penner – Hall15:24
xG 0.87–0.26 (77%)attempts 21–11goals 1–0
- Jacques – Fraser – Stortini3:49
xG 0.43–0.06 (87%)attempts 2–4goals 1–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi12:43
xG 0.51–0.59 (46%)attempts 13–9goals 1–0
- Jones – Reddox – Cogliano12:47
xG 0.68–0.87 (44%)attempts 15–18goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestVandermeer – Foster13:00
xG 1.34–0.64 (68%)attempts 22–12goals 1–0
- Gilbert – Peckham14:00
xG 0.82–0.54 (60%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
- Vandermeer – Gilbert2:46
xG 0.11–0.31 (26%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBissonnette – Korpikoski – Ebbett5:49
xG 0.33–0.01 (96%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Belanger – Pyatt – Stempniak12:44
xG 0.59–0.40 (60%)attempts 14–17goals 0–1
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:41
xG 0.68–0.67 (50%)attempts 18–14goals 0–1
- Doan – Upshall – Turris11:24
xG 0.32–1.27 (20%)attempts 9–16goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Ekman-Larsson11:26
xG 0.45–0.38 (54%)attempts 11–9goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Ekman-Larsson2:25
xG 0.17–0.14 (54%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski15:30
xG 0.42–0.42 (50%)attempts 14–18goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 62% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).