Wed, Jan 26, 2011·Nassau Veterans Memorial Coliseum, Uniondale
Carolina Hurricanes 4, New York Islanders 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 114 | 27 | 110 | 431 |
| NYI | 06 | 113 | 16 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:43CARZach BoychukAssists: Eric Staal, Erik Cole · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 0:31NYIMichael GrabnerAssists: Frans Nielsen, Andrew MacDonald · Backhand, 0.14 xG1–1
- P2 5:55CAREric StaalAssists: Erik Cole · Snap, 0.23 xG2–1
- P2 7:23CAREric StaalGWGAssists: Joe Corvo, Tim Gleason · Slap, 0.01 xG3–1
- P3 15:05CARBrandon SutterAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Jussi Jokinen · Backhand, 0.18 xG4–1
- P3 18:39NYIAndrew MacDonaldAssists: Michael Grabner · Snap, 0.02 xG4–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 4:13NYITravis Hamonic: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 8:15CAREric Staal: Cross checking2 min
- P1 16:11NYIBlake Comeau: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:19NYIAndrew MacDonald: Slashing2 min
- P1 16:19CARJeff Skinner: Slashing2 min
- P1 19:16NYIMatt Moulson: Cross checking2 min
- P1 19:16CARRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 4:07NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:07CARTroy Bodie: Fighting5 min
- P2 14:23CARJiri Tlusty: Hooking2 min
- P3 12:34NYIRob Schremp: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 18:29CAREric Staal: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 18:29NYIRob Schremp: Slashing2 min
- P3 19:44NYIPA Parenteau: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Schremp
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestCole – Staal – Boychuk11:12
xG 1.26–0.43 (74%)attempts 14–13goals 3–0
- Jokinen – Tlusty – Sutter9:24
xG 0.52–0.22 (70%)attempts 10–9goals 1–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner9:41
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Bodie – Carter5:46
xG 0.21–0.34 (38%)attempts 7–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestCorvo – Gleason12:42
xG 1.29–0.30 (81%)attempts 20–10goals 2–0
- Harrison – White9:47
xG 0.61–0.11 (84%)attempts 10–5goals 2–0
- Harrison – McBain2:31
xG 0.01–0.09 (13%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner9:37
xG 0.29–0.19 (61%)attempts 8–6goals 0–0
- Konopka – Colliton – Martin5:16
xG 0.11–0.06 (66%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares10:24
xG 0.62–0.75 (45%)attempts 15–15goals 0–2
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey7:35
xG 0.55–0.85 (39%)attempts 11–8goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Reese – Hillen3:03
xG 0.23–0.21 (51%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Martinek – Reese12:35
xG 0.85–0.88 (49%)attempts 19–14goals 0–2
- MacDonald – Hamonic13:26
xG 0.39–0.78 (34%)attempts 14–14goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).