Wed, Jan 26, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Phoenix Coyotes 5, Colorado Avalanche 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 64% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 214 | 114 | 29 | 537 |
| COL | 11 | 019 | 111 | 231 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:20COLRyan StoaAssists: Paul Stastny, Kevin Shattenkirk · Wrist, 0.03 xG0–1
- P1 6:12PHXScottie UpshallPPAssists: Keith Yandle, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–1
- P1 13:59PHXKeith YandleAssists: Martin Hanzal, Derek Morris · Wrist, 0.21 xG2–1
- P2 1:09PHXEric BelangerGWGAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.14 xG3–1
- P3 12:54PHXKyle TurrisAssists: Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.04 xG4–1
- P3 15:44COLMatt DucheneAssists: TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.07 xG4–2
- P3 19:08PHXEric BelangerENAssists: Lauri Korpikoski · Wrist, 0.62 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 2:31COLDavid Koci: Boarding2 min
- P1 4:05PHXAdrian Aucoin: Tripping2 min
- P1 6:05COLPaul Stastny: Interference2 min · PPG
- P1 10:20COLAdam Foote: Holding2 min
- P1 13:12PHXEric Belanger: Roughing2 min
- P1 13:12COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P1 15:14COLRyan Wilson: Interference2 min
- P2 4:23COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P2 6:59COLPaul Stastny: High sticking double minor4 min
- P2 11:27PHXEric Belanger: Tripping2 min
- P3 2:58COLRyan O'Byrne: Holding2 min
- P3 7:16PHXMartin Hanzal: Tripping2 min
- P3 14:12PHXKyle Turris: Roughing2 min
- P3 14:12COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Hanzal won the faceoff against Stastny
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Pyatt – Stempniak8:31
xG 0.38–0.05 (88%)attempts 9–3goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal6:08
xG 0.08–0.07 (54%)attempts 4–4goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Turris8:42
xG 0.21–0.62 (26%)attempts 8–10goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestLepisto – Ekman-Larsson4:13
xG 0.18–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 1–0
- Morris – Yandle10:47
xG 0.10–0.63 (13%)attempts 6–11goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Jovanovski12:36
xG 0.29–0.95 (24%)attempts 7–11goals 1–0
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestWinnik – McLeod – Galiardi3:14
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Yip – Stastny – Stoa5:15
xG 0.17–0.02 (90%)attempts 6–1goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stewart – Duchene3:09
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLiles – Shattenkirk5:27
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
- Foote – Cumiskey7:33
xG 0.57–0.16 (78%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- O'Byrne – Wilson3:15
xG 0.25–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 64% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).