Wed, Jan 26, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Nashville Predators 1, Vancouver Canucks 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NSH | 012 | 08 | 17 | 127 |
| VAN | 04 | 014 | 217 | 235 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:37NSHShea WeberAssists: Martin Erat, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–0
- P3 10:39VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Dan Hamhuis · Backhand, 0.33 xG1–1
- P3 12:31VANLee SweattGWGAssists: Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–2
Penalties (9)
- P1 4:16NSHShea Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P1 8:13VANKevin Bieksa: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:49VANAlexandre Burrows: Hooking2 min
- P1 11:34NSHJoel Ward: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 16:03VANHenrik Sedin: Tripping2 min
- P2 3:02VANChristian Ehrhoff: High sticking2 min
- P2 11:36NSHRyan Suter: Holding2 min
- P2 14:43VANAaron Volpatti: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:03NSHPekka Rinne: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Goc
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestLegwand – Hornqvist – Wilson9:17
xG 0.54–0.20 (73%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Dumont – Halischuk – Mueller6:03
xG 0.27–0.03 (91%)attempts 8–3goals 0–0
- Erat – Goc – Kostitsyn10:20
xG 0.30–0.27 (52%)attempts 11–8goals 1–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling6:33
xG 0.09–0.60 (13%)attempts 2–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestKlein – Sulzer7:46
xG 0.54–0.05 (91%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Suter – Weber13:04
xG 0.70–0.64 (52%)attempts 16–16goals 1–1
- Klein – O'Brien2:26
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows10:59
xG 0.48–0.28 (63%)attempts 11–4goals 2–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Glass2:06
xG 0.04–0.03 (59%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen3:39
xG 0.06–0.06 (47%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond10:45
xG 0.40–0.70 (37%)attempts 13–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestBieksa – Ballard2:25
xG 0.06–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Ballard5:52
xG 0.09–0.03 (74%)attempts 6–2goals 0–1
- Ballard – Tanev6:28
xG 0.30–0.28 (51%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it NSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − NSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).