Tue, Feb 1, 2011·Madison Square Garden, New York
Pittsburgh Penguins 4, New York Rangers 3 (SO)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 012 | 310 | 03 | 01 | 1 | 426 |
| NYR | 18 | 28 | 011 | 02 | 0 | 329 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:52NYRBrandon PrustAssists: Wojtek Wolski, Brian Boyle · Snap, 0.21 xG0–1
- P2 1:41NYRArtem AnisimovAssists: Brandon Dubinsky, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.38 xG0–2
- P2 5:30PITDustin JeffreyPPAssists: Chris Kunitz, Alex Goligoski · Slap, 0.03 xG1–2
- P2 10:36PITMike RuppAssists: Max Talbot, Deryk Engelland · Snap, 0.25 xG2–2
- P2 14:12PITChris KunitzAssists: Zbynek Michalek, Brooks Orpik · Tip-in, 0.01 xG3–2
- P2 19:47NYRRyan CallahanPPAssists: Michael Del Zotto, Mats Zuccarello · Tip-in, 0.15 xG3–3
Shootout
- 1. PIT Kris Letang stopped
- 2. NYR Wojtek Wolski stopped
- 3. PIT Pascal Dupuis stopped
- 4. NYR Mats Zuccarello stopped
- 5. NYR Ryan Callahan stopped
- 6. PIT Chris Kunitz stopped
- 7. PIT Alex Goligoski stopped
- 8. NYR Artem Anisimov stopped
- 9. PIT Tyler Kennedy stopped
- 10. NYR Derek Stepan stopped
- 11. PIT Chris Conner stopped
- 12. NYR Brandon Dubinsky stopped
- 13. PIT Dustin Jeffrey scored
- 14. NYR Marian Gaborik stopped
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:57PITChris Conner: Tripping2 min
- P1 16:33PITBrooks Orpik: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 3:17NYRBrandon Prust: Fighting5 min · PPG
- P2 3:17PITDeryk Engelland: Fighting5 min
- P2 5:20NYRKris Newbury: Elbowing2 min
- P2 10:56NYRDerek Stepan: Holding2 min
- P2 15:27PITJordan Staal: Match penatly 10 minutes10 min · PPG
- P3 0:17PITZbynek Michalek: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 1:29NYRBrandon Dubinsky: High sticking2 min
- P3 12:46PITKris Letang: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Staal
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner5:21
xG 0.41–0.23 (64%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Jeffrey9:47
xG 0.28–0.14 (66%)attempts 8–5goals 1–0
- Adams – Cooke – Kennedy2:23
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal7:01
xG 0.12–0.67 (15%)attempts 5–10goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestEngelland – Goligoski7:43
xG 0.65–0.03 (95%)attempts 8–4goals 1–0
- Orpik – Michalek2:46
xG 0.12–0.05 (71%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Martin – Goligoski2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–0goals 0–0
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestCallahan – Stepan – Zuccarello4:43
xG 0.26–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Boyle – Wolski – Prust4:57
xG 0.31–0.05 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov3:30
xG 0.16–0.04 (80%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Drury – Avery – Newbury3:31
xG 0.08–0.12 (40%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi16:24
xG 1.00–0.37 (73%)attempts 18–14goals 2–1
- Sauer – McDonagh15:34
xG 0.63–0.57 (52%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gilroy9:00
xG 0.35–0.58 (37%)attempts 8–9goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NYR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NYR is favoured, below it PIT. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NYR − PIT), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).