Tue, Feb 1, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
New York Islanders 4, Atlanta Thrashers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 08 | 317 | 18 | 433 |
| ATL | 110 | 09 | 07 | 126 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 14:31ATLFreddy MeyerAssists: Nik Antropov, Alexander Burmistrov · Wrist, 0.32 xG0–1
- P2 5:23NYITravis HamonicAssists: John Tavares, PA Parenteau · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P2 16:39NYIKyle OkposoGWGUnassisted · Wrist, 0.44 xG2–1
- P2 17:39NYIPA ParenteauPPAssists: Kyle Okposo, John Tavares · Snap, 0.06 xG3–1
- P3 11:19NYIKyle OkposoAssists: Michael Grabner · Wrist, 0.15 xG4–1
Penalties (2)
- P1 8:57NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 17:02ATLNiclas Bergfors: Delaying game puck over glass2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Little won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner13:06
xG 1.11–0.29 (79%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares14:26
xG 0.87–0.13 (87%)attempts 15–9goals 1–0
- Colliton – Comeau – Bailey12:00
xG 0.24–0.80 (23%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Konopka – Schremp – Martin9:14
xG 0.07–1.63 (4%)attempts 7–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMartinek – Hillen19:00
xG 1.31–0.92 (59%)attempts 18–18goals 2–0
- MacDonald – Hamonic18:51
xG 1.09–1.08 (50%)attempts 21–13goals 1–1
- Gervais – Reese17:32
xG 0.95–1.18 (44%)attempts 15–17goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Stapleton – Cormier6:05
xG 0.89–0.14 (87%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Modin – Antropov – Burmistrov8:01
xG 0.46–0.05 (90%)attempts 4–5goals 1–0
- Modin – Thorburn – Stapleton2:12
xG 0.00–0.23 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Ladd – Peverley – Bergfors11:30
xG 0.41–0.69 (37%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHainsey – Bogosian19:25
xG 1.40–0.96 (59%)attempts 16–15goals 0–2
- Sopel – Meyer11:39
xG 0.82–1.13 (42%)attempts 8–19goals 1–1
- Oduya – Byfuglien22:09
xG 0.78–1.19 (40%)attempts 20–18goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Islanders win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).