Tue, Feb 1, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Chicago Blackhawks 7, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 29 | 313 | 25 | 727 |
| CBJ | 18 | 213 | 112 | 433 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:57CBJDerek DorsettAssists: Kris Russell, Grant Clitsome · Backhand, 0.08 xG0–1
- P1 9:10CHINick LeddyAssists: Jack Skille, Nick Boynton · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–1
- P1 17:44CHIDuncan KeithPPAssists: Patrick Kane, Patrick Sharp · Slap, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 1:40CBJDerick BrassardAssists: Rick Nash, Jan Hejda · Wrist, 0.09 xG2–2
- P2 2:22CBJSamuel PahlssonAssists: Chris Clark, Derek Dorsett · Deflected, 0.01 xG2–3
- P2 4:52CHIViktor StalbergAssists: Fernando Pisani, Jonathan Toews · Tip-in, 0.11 xG3–3
- P2 12:36CHIPatrick KaneAssists: Jonathan Toews, Troy Brouwer · Snap, 0.17 xG4–3
- P2 19:20CHIJonathan ToewsSHGWGAssists: Marian Hossa, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.12 xG5–3
- P3 12:00CHIDave BollandAssists: Bryan Bickell, Fernando Pisani · Wrist, 0.05 xG6–3
- P3 13:33CBJMatt CalvertAssists: Derek MacKenzie · Tip-in, 0.13 xG6–4
- P3 19:24CHIMarian HossaENAssists: Brent Seabrook, Jake Dowell · Tip-in, 0.68 xG7–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 0:06CBJKristian Huselius: Tripping2 min
- P1 15:59CBJDerick Brassard: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P1 16:13CBJMarc Methot: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P2 2:37CHIViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:08CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P2 17:27CHIJack Skille: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 7:44CHIJonathan Toews: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:07CHINiklas Hjalmarsson: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:35CHITroy Brouwer: Fighting5 min
- P3 11:35CBJMarc Methot: Fighting5 min
- P3 18:28CHIPatrick Sharp: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestDowell – Skille – Stalberg5:56
xG 0.14–0.08 (64%)attempts 6–5goals 1–0
- Brouwer – Toews – Kane8:15
xG 0.32–0.29 (53%)attempts 2–6goals 1–1
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell12:23
xG 0.34–0.55 (38%)attempts 10–12goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Sharp7:22
xG 0.30–0.90 (25%)attempts 9–17goals 0–3
Defence pairs
- Boynton – Leddy7:23
xG 0.48–0.47 (51%)attempts 8–11goals 3–2
- Campbell – Keith2:54
xG 0.13–0.14 (48%)attempts 4–3goals 1–0
- Keith – Seabrook14:28
xG 0.58–0.79 (42%)attempts 14–12goals 0–2
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestHuselius – Vermette – Umberger12:56
xG 0.70–0.23 (75%)attempts 16–5goals 0–1
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek14:35
xG 0.77–0.54 (59%)attempts 15–16goals 1–0
- Clark – Pahlsson – Dorsett7:12
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 8–3goals 2–1
- MacKenzie – Boll – Calvert4:12
xG 0.18–0.14 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestTyutin – Methot9:10
xG 0.57–0.24 (70%)attempts 12–8goals 0–0
- Hejda – Stralman11:53
xG 0.76–0.47 (62%)attempts 17–7goals 1–3
- Clitsome – Russell15:27
xG 0.80–0.52 (61%)attempts 16–14goals 2–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 61% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).