Tue, Feb 1, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Philadelphia Flyers 0, Tampa Bay Lightning 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHI | 013 | 014 | 011 | 038 |
| TBL | 36 | 011 | 15 | 422 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:19TBLTeddy PurcellGWGAssists: Vincent Lecavalier, Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–1
- P1 1:21TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Simon Gagne · Wrist, 0.20 xG0–2
- P1 14:24TBLSteve DownieAssists: Martin St. Louis, Randy Jones · Wrist, 0.10 xG0–3
- P3 8:51TBLSteven StamkosAssists: Martin St. Louis, Brett Clark · Snap, 0.13 xG0–4
Penalties (6)
- P1 5:33PHIDaniel Carcillo: Cross checking2 min
- P1 7:42TBLNate Thompson: Hooking2 min
- P1 9:57TBLVictor Hedman: Holding2 min
- P2 4:03TBLSimon Gagne: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:32TBLSean Bergenheim: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:52PHIJeff Carter: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Lecavalier won the faceoff against Richards
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestZherdev – Carter – Giroux15:45
xG 0.65–0.04 (94%)attempts 19–3goals 0–0
- Richards – Nodl – van Riemsdyk7:52
xG 0.42–0.46 (48%)attempts 10–8goals 0–2
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino7:19
xG 0.09–0.22 (30%)attempts 6–10goals 0–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe6:02
xG 0.19–0.37 (34%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn14:59
xG 0.82–0.39 (68%)attempts 17–12goals 0–1
- O'Donnell – Meszaros12:26
xG 0.56–0.49 (53%)attempts 15–9goals 0–2
- Coburn – Carle2:00
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestLecavalier – Gagne – Purcell12:38
xG 0.65–0.33 (66%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos11:11
xG 0.58–0.60 (49%)attempts 10–14goals 2–0
- St. Louis – Moore – Bergenheim2:29
xG 0.00–0.15 (0%)attempts 0–6goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell11:50
xG 0.06–0.52 (10%)attempts 5–13goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKubina – Jones7:56
xG 0.30–0.14 (69%)attempts 4–9goals 2–0
- Clark – Hedman12:45
xG 0.69–0.54 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 2–0
- Kubina – Smaby3:12
xG 0.04–0.22 (16%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it PHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Philadelphia Flyers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − PHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).