Tue, Feb 1, 2011·Bridgestone Arena, Nashville
Calgary Flames 3, Nashville Predators 2 (SO)
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | SO | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 08 | 06 | 210 | 04 | 1 | 328 |
| NSH | 111 | 06 | 19 | 01 | 0 | 227 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:43NSHMartin EratAssists: Sergei Kostitsyn, Marcel Goc · Tip-in, 0.24 xG0–1
- P3 2:57CGYMatt StajanAssists: Tim Jackman, Curtis Glencross · Slap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P3 5:24NSHPatric HornqvistPPAssists: Shea Weber, Sergei Kostitsyn · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–2
- P3 9:04CGYCory SarichAssists: Alex Tanguay, Brendan Morrison · Snap, 0.09 xG2–2
Shootout
- 1. CGY Rene Bourque scored
- 2. NSH Martin Erat stopped
- 3. CGY Alex Tanguay stopped
- 4. NSH Cody Franson stopped
- 5. CGY Olli Jokinen stopped
- 6. NSH David Legwand stopped
Penalties (9)
- P1 0:20NSHNick Spaling: Hooking2 min
- P1 3:24NSHRyan Suter: Closing hand on puck2 min
- P1 11:43CGYAdam Pardy: Interference2 min
- P1 15:52CGYRobyn Regehr: Slashing2 min
- P2 1:37NSHNick Spaling: Tripping2 min
- P2 5:32NSHJerred Smithson: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:13CGYMiikka Kiprusoff: Interference2 min
- P3 4:56CGYOlli Jokinen: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 16:32NSHNick Spaling: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Smithson
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestHagman – Stajan – Glencross6:06
xG 0.43–0.25 (63%)attempts 5–7goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Stajan – Glencross2:00
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–0goals 0–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Bourque6:37
xG 0.23–0.21 (52%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay8:52
xG 0.23–0.31 (43%)attempts 6–4goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester13:01
xG 0.34–0.26 (56%)attempts 9–12goals 1–0
- Sarich – Giordano9:43
xG 0.19–0.21 (47%)attempts 5–7goals 1–0
- Babchuk – Pardy9:33
xG 0.21–0.27 (43%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Nashville Predators
Forward lines
- bestErat – Goc – Kostitsyn8:00
xG 0.53–0.05 (91%)attempts 9–5goals 1–0
- Dumont – Halischuk – Mueller7:21
xG 0.22–0.07 (75%)attempts 9–3goals 0–0
- Smithson – Ward – Spaling6:18
xG 0.04–0.20 (17%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Legwand – Hornqvist – Wilson8:40
xG 0.15–0.39 (29%)attempts 5–5goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestSuter – Weber14:04
xG 0.54–0.24 (69%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- O'Brien – Franson8:07
xG 0.22–0.16 (58%)attempts 7–4goals 0–1
- Sulzer – Franson3:39
xG 0.05–0.05 (49%)attempts 5–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
NSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line NSH is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Nashville Predators win this game 50% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (NSH − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).