Tue, Feb 1, 2011·HP Pavilion at San Jose, San Jose
Phoenix Coyotes 3, San Jose Sharks 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 218 | 112 | 06 | 336 |
| SJS | 012 | 111 | 415 | 538 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 16:11PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Shane Doan, Ray Whitney · Tip-in, 0.11 xG1–0
- P1 18:55PHXKeith YandleAssists: Derek Morris · Slap, 0.02 xG2–0
- P2 10:13PHXPaul BissonnetteAssists: Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Lauri Korpikoski · Slap, 0.13 xG3–0
- P2 19:52SJSJoe PavelskiPPAssists: Dany Heatley, Dan Boyle · Backhand, 0.33 xG3–1
- P3 1:24SJSJoe PavelskiAssists: Devin Setoguchi, Ryane Clowe · Slap, 0.40 xG3–2
- P3 5:32SJSKyle WellwoodAssists: Ben Eager, Jason Demers · Slap, 0.40 xG3–3
- P3 13:55SJSPatrick MarleauSHGWGAssists: Joe Pavelski · Wrist, 0.18 xG3–4
- P3 19:49SJSJoe ThorntonENAssists: Patrick Marleau, Marc-Edouard Vlasic · Backhand, 0.69 xG3–5
Penalties (7)
- P1 12:39PHXShane Doan: Holding2 min
- P1 14:33SJSDany Heatley: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 12:25SJSJamal Mayers: Misconduct10 min
- P2 19:03PHXEric Belanger: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 2:03SJSBenn Ferriero: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:55PHXSami Lepisto: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 12:35SJSBen Eager: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestBelanger – Pyatt – Stempniak12:42
xG 0.52–0.43 (55%)attempts 13–10goals 0–0
- Doan – Upshall – Turris11:44
xG 0.61–0.52 (54%)attempts 9–15goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Korpikoski – Ebbett6:39
xG 0.23–0.49 (32%)attempts 7–8goals 1–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal10:01
xG 0.60–0.96 (38%)attempts 16–10goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Jovanovski13:10
xG 0.61–0.31 (66%)attempts 11–10goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Lepisto2:11
xG 0.21–0.06 (78%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
- Morris – Ekman-Larsson2:07
xG 0.04–0.03 (50%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestWellwood – Eager – Ferriero2:47
xG 0.91–0.00 (100%)attempts 6–2goals 1–0
- Clowe – Pavelski – Setoguchi4:19
xG 0.65–0.09 (88%)attempts 8–2goals 1–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Heatley3:33
xG 0.08–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Thornton – Marleau – Setoguchi6:48
xG 0.30–0.22 (57%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWallin – Demers9:14
xG 1.33–0.24 (85%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Boyle – Murray15:08
xG 0.74–0.43 (63%)attempts 14–11goals 0–0
- Vlasic – Joslin3:00
xG 0.49–0.34 (60%)attempts 4–4goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
SJS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line SJS is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 76% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (SJS − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).