Wed, Feb 2, 2011·CONSOL Energy Center, Pittsburgh
New York Islanders 0, Pittsburgh Penguins 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYI | 05 | 07 | 08 | 020 |
| PIT | 27 | 09 | 17 | 323 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:08PITTyler KennedyPPGWGAssists: Paul Martin, Zbynek Michalek · Wrist, 0.24 xG0–1
- P1 13:10PITChris KunitzAssists: Pascal Dupuis, Paul Martin · Backhand, 0.02 xG0–2
- P3 19:19PITMax TalbotENAssists: Craig Adams · Wrist, 0.56 xG0–3
Penalties (26)
- P1 6:28NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P1 6:28PITMike Rupp: Roughing2 min
- P1 6:28NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:09PITEric Godard: Holding2 min
- P1 19:10PITTyler Kennedy: Hooking2 min
- P2 2:37NYIZenon Konopka: Fighting5 min
- P2 2:37PITMike Rupp: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:54NYIKyle Okposo: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:03NYIPA Parenteau: Hooking2 min
- P2 12:14PITJordan Staal: Tripping2 min
- P2 18:43PITMike Rupp: Boarding2 min
- P3 3:35NYIZenon Konopka: Hooking2 min
- P3 13:40PITMike Rupp: Tripping2 min
- P3 19:43NYIMatt Martin: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:43NYIZenon Konopka: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:43NYIRick DiPietro: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 19:43NYIRick DiPietro: Interference2 min
- P3 19:43NYIMatt Martin: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:43NYIZenon Konopka: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:43PITMatt Cooke: Misconduct10 min
- P3 19:43PITMatt Cooke: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:43PITBrent Johnson: Goalie leave crease2 min
- P3 19:43NYIRick DiPietro: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:43PITBrent Johnson: Fighting5 min
- P3 19:43NYIRick DiPietro: Game misconduct10 min
- P3 19:43PITBrent Johnson: Game misconduct10 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Nielsen
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Islanders
Forward lines
- bestNielsen – Okposo – Grabner8:04
xG 0.25–0.14 (65%)attempts 16–3goals 0–1
- Schremp – Comeau – Bailey3:25
xG 0.04–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Konopka – Schremp – Martin2:03
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–0goals 0–0
- Parenteau – Moulson – Tavares11:08
xG 0.21–0.56 (27%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestMacDonald – Hamonic11:09
xG 0.33–0.19 (63%)attempts 17–7goals 0–0
- Martinek – Hillen12:39
xG 0.21–0.31 (41%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Gervais – Reese11:47
xG 0.10–0.72 (12%)attempts 6–7goals 0–0
Pittsburgh Penguins
Forward lines
- bestRupp – Talbot – Conner4:52
xG 0.70–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–0goals 0–0
- Cooke – Kennedy – Staal5:59
xG 0.22–0.17 (57%)attempts 4–6goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Kunitz – Jeffrey8:26
xG 0.02–0.14 (14%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOrpik – Letang8:48
xG 0.33–0.18 (65%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
- Martin – Michalek10:03
xG 0.38–0.26 (59%)attempts 8–14goals 1–0
- Martin – Letang2:12
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 0–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PIT's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PIT is favoured, below it NYI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Pittsburgh Penguins win this game 88% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PIT − NYI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).