Wed, Feb 2, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
Florida Panthers 2, Montréal Canadiens 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FLA | 16 | 014 | 115 | 235 |
| MTL | 010 | 115 | 215 | 340 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 7:30FLAScott TimminsAssists: Rostislav Olesz, Steve Bernier · Backhand, 0.07 xG1–0
- P2 4:50MTLJeff HalpernAssists: P.K. Subban · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–1
- P3 5:46MTLTomas PlekanecAssists: Max Pacioretty · Wrist, 0.03 xG1–2
- P3 11:32MTLBrian GiontaGWGAssists: Max Pacioretty, P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.25 xG1–3
- P3 17:50FLAStephen WeissAssists: Michael Frolik, Dmitry Kulikov · Wrist, 0.34 xG2–3
Penalties (8)
- P1 0:40FLAMarty Reasoner: Tripping2 min
- P1 10:07FLABryan Allen: Interference2 min
- P1 12:05MTLJaroslav Spacek: Slashing2 min
- P2 5:37MTLJames Wisniewski: Interference2 min
- P2 16:00FLADennis Wideman: Holding2 min
- P2 19:43FLADennis Wideman: Hooking2 min
- P3 14:49FLAMichael Frolik: High sticking2 min
- P3 15:43MTLScott Gomez: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestWeiss – Higgins – Frolik9:54
xG 0.62–0.20 (76%)attempts 15–9goals 0–1
- Bernier – Booth – Timmins5:06
xG 0.50–0.08 (86%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Dadonov2:58
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
- Bernier – Olesz – Timmins2:16
xG 0.11–0.02 (84%)attempts 5–2goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestAllen – Wideman9:27
xG 0.93–0.49 (66%)attempts 19–14goals 1–0
- Ellerby – Kulikov10:28
xG 0.44–0.16 (74%)attempts 14–5goals 0–1
- Garrison – Kulikov4:12
xG 0.12–0.09 (56%)attempts 3–6goals 0–0
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- bestGionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty11:10
xG 0.92–0.20 (82%)attempts 20–6goals 2–0
- Halpern – Moen – Pyatt5:59
xG 0.11–0.20 (34%)attempts 3–9goals 1–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais6:56
xG 0.30–0.68 (31%)attempts 8–15goals 0–1
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Eller8:57
xG 0.35–0.76 (31%)attempts 10–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban11:14
xG 0.76–0.35 (69%)attempts 16–16goals 3–1
- Spacek – Weber9:12
xG 0.21–0.18 (54%)attempts 15–6goals 0–0
- Spacek – Subban2:03
xG 0.03–0.37 (9%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it FLA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 63% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − FLA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).