Thu, Feb 3, 2011·TD Garden, Boston
Dallas Stars 3, Boston Bruins 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DAL | 09 | 116 | 28 | 333 |
| BOS | 415 | 09 | 211 | 635 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:35BOSMilan LucicAssists: David Krejci, Nathan Horton · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P1 1:20BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Mark Recchi · Deflected, 0.13 xG0–2
- P1 9:35BOSPatrice BergeronAssists: Brad Marchand, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–3
- P1 16:01BOSShawn ThorntonGWGAssists: Daniel Paille, Zdeno Chara · Slap, 0.03 xG0–4
- P2 10:36DALKarlis SkrastinsAssists: Adam Burish · Wrist, 0.04 xG1–4
- P3 0:45DALBrenden MorrowSHAssists: Steve Ott, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–4
- P3 3:33DALBrad RichardsAssists: Loui Eriksson, Jeff Woywitka · Slap, 0.04 xG3–4
- P3 5:31BOSTyler SeguinAssists: Michael Ryder, Blake Wheeler · Slap, 0.04 xG3–5
- P3 17:40BOSBrad MarchandENAssists: Patrice Bergeron, Mark Recchi · Wrist, 0.66 xG3–6
Penalties (20)
- P1 0:01BOSGregory Campbell: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:01DALSteve Ott: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02BOSShawn Thornton: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:02DALKrys Barch: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04BOSAdam McQuaid: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:04DALBrian Sutherby: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:51BOSAndrew Ference: Fighting5 min
- P1 3:51DALAdam Burish: Fighting5 min
- P1 6:30BOSBrad Marchand: Holding2 min
- P1 10:22DALRaymond Sawada: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 17:49DALStephane Robidas: Interference2 min
- P2 3:29DALSteve Ott: Misconduct10 min
- P2 3:29BOSZdeno Chara: Misconduct10 min
- P2 4:09BOSBlake Wheeler: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 11:21BOSDaniel Paille: Game misconduct10 min
- P2 11:21BOSDaniel Paille: Illegal check to head5 min
- P2 11:21DALJamie Langenbrunner: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:21BOSJohnny Boychuk: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:36DALBrad Richards: Tripping2 min
- P3 8:21DALMatt Niskanen: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Burish won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- Richards – Eriksson – Neal13:02
xG 0.71–0.73 (50%)attempts 12–14goals 1–2
- Ott – Sutherby – Gagnon2:52
xG 0.02–0.08 (18%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Langenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro7:13
xG 0.17–0.33 (33%)attempts 6–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- Grossmann – Niskanen2:55
xG 0.15–0.19 (45%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Robidas – Grossmann9:02
xG 0.31–0.53 (37%)attempts 6–8goals 0–2
- Woywitka – Daley15:09
xG 0.45–0.68 (40%)attempts 12–17goals 1–1
Boston Bruins
Forward lines
- bestRyder – Wheeler – Seguin6:17
xG 0.77–0.06 (93%)attempts 11–2goals 1–1
- Horton – Krejci – Lucic9:34
xG 0.43–0.16 (73%)attempts 12–8goals 1–0
- Recchi – Bergeron – Marchand7:24
xG 0.36–0.50 (42%)attempts 5–7goals 2–0
- Thornton – Campbell – Paille2:57
xG 0.05–0.20 (19%)attempts 2–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestFerence – McQuaid8:57
xG 0.54–0.07 (89%)attempts 12–4goals 1–0
- Seidenberg – Boychuk12:47
xG 0.54–0.34 (62%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Chara – Kampfer12:44
xG 0.60–0.59 (51%)attempts 12–11goals 2–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BOS's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BOS is favoured, below it DAL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Boston Bruins win this game 77% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BOS − DAL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).