Thu, Feb 3, 2011·Philips Arena, Atlanta
Calgary Flames 4, Atlanta Thrashers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CGY | 110 | 18 | 26 | 424 |
| ATL | 07 | 210 | 07 | 224 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 4:55CGYMark GiordanoAssists: Robyn Regehr, Olli Jokinen · Slap, 0.02 xG1–0
- P2 0:58ATLBryan LittleAssists: Niclas Bergfors, Evander Kane · Snap, 0.12 xG1–1
- P2 11:14ATLAnthony StewartAssists: Nik Antropov, Evander Kane · Wrist, 0.07 xG1–2
- P2 12:09CGYBrendan MorrisonAssists: Mark Giordano, Alex Tanguay · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 14:03CGYMikael BacklundGWGUnassisted · Snap, 0.14 xG3–2
- P3 19:54CGYCurtis GlencrossENUnassisted · Wrap-around, 0.69 xG4–2
Penalties (4)
- P1 0:55ATLEvander Kane: High sticking double minor4 min
- P1 10:29CGYCory Sarich: Kneeing2 min
- P2 8:25ATLTim Stapleton: High sticking2 min
- P2 19:29CGYRobyn Regehr: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Jokinen won the faceoff against Antropov
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Calgary Flames
Forward lines
- bestIginla – Kostopoulos – Backlund4:01
xG 0.21–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–1goals 1–0
- Jokinen – Moss – Bourque9:41
xG 0.32–0.22 (59%)attempts 5–9goals 0–0
- Kostopoulos – Stajan – Glencross2:06
xG 0.02–0.09 (21%)attempts 2–3goals 0–1
- Morrison – Iginla – Tanguay10:07
xG 0.17–0.26 (40%)attempts 6–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestRegehr – Bouwmeester14:58
xG 0.79–0.23 (78%)attempts 12–12goals 1–0
- Sarich – Regehr2:16
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Bouwmeester – Giordano2:11
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Stapleton – Cormier8:08
xG 0.39–0.18 (69%)attempts 12–9goals 0–0
- Modin – Peverley – Burmistrov7:52
xG 0.31–0.25 (55%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little13:06
xG 0.29–0.31 (48%)attempts 11–9goals 1–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane10:20
xG 0.14–0.22 (39%)attempts 7–3goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Byfuglien15:14
xG 0.51–0.33 (61%)attempts 16–9goals 1–1
- Sopel – Oduya3:21
xG 0.12–0.11 (52%)attempts 4–5goals 0–0
- Oduya – Bogosian2:02
xG 0.00–0.02 (0%)attempts 1–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
ATL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line ATL is favoured, below it CGY. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Calgary Flames win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (ATL − CGY), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).