Thu, Feb 3, 2011·Pepsi Center, Denver
Minnesota Wild 4, Colorado Avalanche 3
Three stars
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 25 | 117 | 13 | 425 |
| COL | 012 | 110 | 219 | 341 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:33MINKyle BrodziakAssists: Nick Schultz, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–0
- P1 1:01MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Antti Miettinen, Mikko Koivu · Wrap-around, 0.05 xG2–0
- P2 11:47COLMilan HejdukAssists: Kevin Porter, Kyle Cumiskey · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–1
- P2 16:50MINAndrew BrunetteAssists: Mikko Koivu, Pierre-Marc Bouchard · Wrist, 0.17 xG3–1
- P3 0:45COLMilan HejdukAssists: Chris Stewart, Adam Foote · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 11:26MINPierre-Marc BouchardGWGAssists: Martin Havlat · Backhand, 0.27 xG4–2
- P3 19:49COLChris StewartAssists: Brandon Yip, TJ Galiardi · Wrist, 0.24 xG4–3
Penalties (7)
- P1 11:47MINBrad Staubitz: Roughing2 min
- P2 6:25COLBrandon Yip: Fighting5 min
- P2 6:25MINCam Barker: Fighting5 min
- P2 9:33COLMilan Hejduk: Hooking2 min
- P2 14:50COLRyan O'Byrne: Elbowing2 min
- P2 17:35COLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P3 3:55MINMartin Havlat: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Duchene won the faceoff against Brodziak
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu8:34
xG 0.54–0.05 (92%)attempts 10–4goals 1–0
- Havlat – Brodziak – Clutterbuck6:55
xG 0.34–0.20 (63%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Cullen – Kobasew – Bouchard6:40
xG 0.14–0.21 (40%)attempts 2–6goals 0–0
- Madden – Kobasew – Nystrom2:48
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestZanon – Stoner13:36
xG 0.70–0.36 (66%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- Barker – Spurgeon6:52
xG 0.26–0.06 (82%)attempts 5–6goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns14:45
xG 0.64–0.49 (57%)attempts 13–9goals 2–2
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stewart – Duchene5:26
xG 0.39–0.03 (92%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Porter – Stewart – Duchene3:14
xG 0.17–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Porter – Yip – Stastny2:14
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Yip – Winnik2:01
xG 0.02–0.18 (8%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Liles – Shattenkirk2:21
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk7:04
xG 0.14–0.14 (50%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne9:18
xG 0.34–0.35 (50%)attempts 9–10goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
COL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line COL is favoured, below it MIN. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 52% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (COL − MIN), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).