Fri, Feb 4, 2011·St. Pete Times Forum, Tampa
Washington Capitals 5, Tampa Bay Lightning 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSH | 117 | 210 | 29 | 536 |
| TBL | 16 | 110 | 09 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:21TBLTeddy PurcellAssists: Simon Gagne, Victor Hedman · Snap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 9:09WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Mike Green · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–1
- P2 6:38WSHBrooks LaichAssists: Mathieu Perreault, Jay Beagle · Backhand, 0.09 xG2–1
- P2 8:25WSHAlex OvechkinPPGWGAssists: Nicklas Backstrom, John Carlson · Snap, 0.03 xG3–1
- P2 19:19TBLBrett ClarkPPAssists: Teddy Purcell, Simon Gagne · Tip-in, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 12:22WSHNicklas BackstromAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Jason Chimera · Wrist, 0.14 xG4–2
- P3 19:22WSHJason ChimeraENAssists: Alex Ovechkin, Nicklas Backstrom · Wrist, 0.65 xG5–2
Penalties (14)
- P1 0:31TBLMattias Ohlund: Roughing2 min
- P1 8:21WSHMatt Hendricks: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P1 8:21TBLDwayne Roloson: Roughing2 min
- P1 10:39TBLSteve Downie: Fighting5 min
- P1 10:39WSHMatt Hendricks: Fighting5 min
- P1 11:00WSHJason Chimera: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:07WSHMatt Bradley: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:07TBLAdam Hall: Fighting5 min
- P1 16:27WSHJohn Erskine: Interference2 min
- P2 1:17TBLRandy Jones: Holding2 min
- P2 7:41TBLMattias Ohlund: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 10:23WSHMarcus Johansson: Interference2 min
- P2 17:27WSHMatt Hendricks: High sticking2 min · PPG
- P3 7:11TBLSteve Downie: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Thompson won the faceoff against Backstrom
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Perreault – Beagle8:13
xG 0.30–0.01 (96%)attempts 9–1goals 1–0
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom12:52
xG 0.61–0.43 (59%)attempts 15–11goals 1–0
- Bradley – Steckel – Gordon7:36
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 6–5goals 0–1
- Knuble – Hendricks – Johansson6:31
xG 0.13–0.37 (26%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestHannan – Erskine10:54
xG 0.73–0.23 (76%)attempts 13–8goals 0–1
- Schultz – Green12:48
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 15–12goals 0–0
- Alzner – Carlson15:40
xG 0.28–0.47 (37%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
Tampa Bay Lightning
Forward lines
- bestMoore – Bergenheim – Purcell2:00
xG 0.40–0.02 (95%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- St. Louis – Downie – Stamkos10:12
xG 0.14–0.36 (28%)attempts 4–12goals 0–0
- Hall – Thompson – Tyrell7:26
xG 0.30–0.54 (36%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Lecavalier – Gagne – Purcell9:54
xG 0.17–0.45 (27%)attempts 8–9goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestSmaby – Jones2:05
xG 0.24–0.00 (100%)attempts 4–0goals 0–0
- Kubina – Jones9:15
xG 0.27–0.07 (79%)attempts 7–1goals 0–0
- Ohlund – Lundin12:15
xG 0.48–0.61 (44%)attempts 10–16goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TBL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TBL is favoured, below it WSH. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Washington Capitals win this game 82% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TBL − WSH), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).