Fri, Feb 4, 2011·Scottrade Center, St. Louis
Edmonton Oilers 3, St. Louis Blues 5
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 113 | 210 | 09 | 332 |
| STL | 25 | 28 | 113 | 526 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 8:46STLT.J. OshieAssists: Alexander Steen, Patrik Berglund · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P1 11:47EDMSam GagnerAssists: Ladislav Smid, Linus Omark · Snap, 0.03 xG1–1
- P1 12:07STLAlex PietrangeloAssists: Brad Boyes, Andy McDonald · Wrist, 0.08 xG1–2
- P2 12:19STLMatt D'AgostiniPPAssists: Nikita Nikitin, Alexander Steen · Deflected, 0.15 xG1–3
- P2 13:46STLBrad BoyesGWGAssists: Patrik Berglund, Erik Johnson · Tip-in, 0.15 xG1–4
- P2 14:36EDMTaylor HallAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jordan Eberle · Deflected, 0.09 xG2–4
- P2 18:52EDMTheo PeckhamAssists: Andrew Cogliano, Jordan Eberle · Tip-in, 0.17 xG3–4
- P3 5:58STLBrad WinchesterAssists: Jay McClement, B.J. Crombeen · Wrist, 0.19 xG3–5
Penalties (10)
- P1 1:53STLCam Janssen: Fighting5 min
- P1 1:53EDMJim Vandermeer: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:11STLB.J. Crombeen: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:43EDMJim Vandermeer: Slashing2 min
- P2 9:43EDMJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 15:14STLAndy McDonald: Holding2 min
- P3 10:43EDMTaylor Hall: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 10:43EDMLadislav Smid: Roughing2 min
- P3 10:43STLT.J. Oshie: Roughing2 min
- P3 19:31STLDavid Backes: Cross checking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Backes won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- bestHorcoff – Hemsky – Jones9:54
xG 0.54–0.31 (64%)attempts 9–8goals 0–1
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi11:29
xG 0.70–0.61 (53%)attempts 13–10goals 1–2
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Reddox3:07
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall11:52
xG 0.88–1.36 (39%)attempts 17–17goals 2–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Peckham13:36
xG 1.17–0.28 (81%)attempts 18–10goals 2–1
- Vandermeer – Foster10:57
xG 0.40–0.35 (54%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Vandermeer – Petry2:14
xG 0.00–0.21 (0%)attempts 0–2goals 0–0
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- Winchester – Janssen – Crombeen2:14
xG 0.00–0.05 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes11:44
xG 0.53–0.62 (46%)attempts 10–11goals 1–0
- McClement – Sobotka – D'Agostini8:16
xG 0.14–0.28 (34%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Steen – Oshie – Berglund9:26
xG 0.41–0.58 (42%)attempts 9–12goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestJackman – Polak20:26
xG 1.91–1.19 (62%)attempts 22–26goals 1–2
- Johnson – Pietrangelo16:33
xG 0.60–0.68 (47%)attempts 14–14goals 2–0
- Strachan – Nikitin8:56
xG 0.24–0.45 (34%)attempts 11–9goals 1–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
STL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line STL is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, St. Louis Blues win this game 54% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (STL − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).