Fri, Feb 4, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Chicago Blackhawks 3, Vancouver Canucks 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHI | 010 | 216 | 119 | 345 |
| VAN | 19 | 112 | 211 | 432 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 18:06VANChristian EhrhoffAssists: Tanner Glass, Cody Hodgson · Wrist, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 5:06CHIJonathan ToewsAssists: Fernando Pisani, Brent Seabrook · Wrist, 0.05 xG1–1
- P2 9:31CHINick BoyntonAssists: Jonathan Toews, Troy Brouwer · Deflected, 0.12 xG2–1
- P2 18:44VANMikael SamuelssonPPAssists: Henrik Sedin, Dan Hamhuis · Slap, 0.11 xG2–2
- P3 7:47CHIDave BollandAssists: Bryan Bickell, Brent Seabrook · Deflected, 0.17 xG3–2
- P3 10:09VANHenrik SedinPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Daniel Sedin · Snap, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 16:00VANDaniel SedinGWGAssists: Henrik Sedin, Alexandre Burrows · Wrist, 0.12 xG3–4
Penalties (11)
- P1 9:19VANMikael Samuelsson: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:34CHITroy Brouwer: Boarding2 min
- P2 11:29VANRyan Kesler: Slashing2 min
- P2 14:31CHIViktor Stalberg: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31VANChristian Ehrhoff: Roughing2 min
- P2 14:31VANChristian Ehrhoff: High sticking2 min
- P2 15:44VANKeith Ballard: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:56CHIJake Dowell: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 3:27CHIViktor Stalberg: Holding2 min
- P3 9:42CHIBrent Seabrook: Holding2 min · PPG
- P3 17:01VANKevin Bieksa: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Bolland
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Chicago Blackhawks
Forward lines
- bestBrouwer – Toews – Kane10:31
xG 0.84–0.17 (83%)attempts 19–10goals 1–0
- Hossa – Kopecky – Sharp9:18
xG 0.53–0.17 (76%)attempts 14–6goals 0–0
- Dowell – Skille – Stalberg4:47
xG 0.27–0.16 (63%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Pisani – Bolland – Bickell8:26
xG 0.09–0.72 (12%)attempts 3–16goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestCampbell – Hjalmarsson14:36
xG 0.79–0.14 (85%)attempts 23–6goals 0–0
- Boynton – Leddy8:00
xG 0.70–0.39 (64%)attempts 9–13goals 2–1
- Boynton – Keith2:01
xG 0.08–0.09 (47%)attempts 2–1goals 0–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestSedin – Sedin – Burrows11:00
xG 0.49–0.37 (57%)attempts 12–11goals 1–0
- Tambellini – Glass – Hodgson4:41
xG 0.26–0.23 (53%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen9:56
xG 0.26–0.55 (33%)attempts 10–15goals 0–2
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond10:35
xG 0.06–0.41 (13%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- Ehrhoff – Rome14:57
xG 0.57–0.71 (45%)attempts 15–19goals 1–0
- Ballard – Tanev10:40
xG 0.47–0.64 (42%)attempts 9–11goals 0–1
- Hamhuis – Bieksa15:24
xG 0.33–0.87 (27%)attempts 16–23goals 0–2
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it CHI. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Chicago Blackhawks win this game 78% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − CHI), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).