Sat, Feb 5, 2011·Centre Bell, Montreal
New York Rangers 0, Montréal Canadiens 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 010 | 06 | 019 | 035 |
| MTL | 012 | 111 | 16 | 229 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 18:34MTLScott GomezGWGAssists: Alexandre Picard, Yannick Weber · Wrist, 0.29 xG0–1
- P3 19:22MTLTomas PlekanecENAssists: P.K. Subban · Wrist, 0.68 xG0–2
Penalties (12)
- P1 6:14NYRMichael Sauer: Interference2 min
- P1 14:36MTLAlexandre Picard: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:36NYRSean Avery: Fighting5 min
- P1 14:36MTLYannick Weber: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:36MTLTravis Moen: Roughing2 min
- P1 14:36NYRBrandon Prust: Slashing2 min
- P1 14:36NYRBrandon Prust: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:31MTLAndrei Kostitsyn: Boarding2 min
- P2 6:21MTLP.K. Subban: Tripping2 min
- P2 9:40MTLAlexandre Picard: Interference2 min
- P2 15:56MTLP.K. Subban: High sticking2 min
- P3 0:46NYRBrandon Prust: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- Press play, or drag along the timeline.
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestAvery – Boyle – Prust7:53
xG 0.55–0.09 (86%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Christensen6:46
xG 0.25–0.11 (70%)attempts 8–7goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello7:57
xG 0.31–0.31 (50%)attempts 13–8goals 0–0
- Dubinsky – Callahan – Anisimov10:25
xG 0.39–0.44 (47%)attempts 13–5goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestSauer – McDonagh18:22
xG 1.13–0.29 (80%)attempts 24–14goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gilroy7:20
xG 0.09–0.20 (31%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Staal – Girardi17:39
xG 0.43–1.11 (28%)attempts 19–18goals 0–1
Montréal Canadiens
Forward lines
- Gionta – Plekanec – Pacioretty11:12
xG 0.38–0.35 (52%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Gomez – Kostitsyn – Eller10:41
xG 0.18–0.21 (47%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Darche – Pouliot – Desharnais7:06
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 8–10goals 0–0
- Halpern – Moen – Pyatt5:04
xG 0.05–0.58 (8%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGill – Subban16:59
xG 0.54–0.44 (55%)attempts 10–23goals 0–0
- Hamrlik – Spacek12:56
xG 0.43–0.43 (50%)attempts 16–13goals 0–0
- Picard – Weber12:08
xG 0.55–0.76 (42%)attempts 12–13goals 1–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MTL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MTL is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Montréal Canadiens win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MTL − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).