Sat, Feb 5, 2011·HSBC Arena, Buffalo
Toronto Maple Leafs 2, Buffalo Sabres 6
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 010 | 18 | 17 | 225 |
| BUF | 212 | 318 | 113 | 643 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:31BUFJason PominvilleAssists: Thomas Vanek · Slap, 0.07 xG0–1
- P1 5:52BUFDrew StaffordPPAssists: Jordan Leopold, Tyler Myers · Slap, 0.17 xG0–2
- P2 4:19BUFPaul GaustadGWGAssists: Mike Grier, Rob Niedermayer · Wrist, 0.07 xG0–3
- P2 7:14BUFTim ConnollyPPAssists: Thomas Vanek, Drew Stafford · Wrist, 0.19 xG0–4
- P2 8:50TORNikolay KuleminSHAssists: Luke Schenn · Tip-in, 0.10 xG1–4
- P2 14:22BUFDrew StaffordUnassisted · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–5
- P3 12:39TORFrancois BeaucheminAssists: Kris Versteeg, Colby Armstrong · Slap, 0.01 xG2–5
- P3 16:43BUFThomas VanekUnassisted · Wrist, 0.25 xG2–6
Penalties (11)
- P1 5:23TORClarke MacArthur: Hooking2 min · PPG
- P1 9:48BUFCody McCormick: Cross checking2 min
- P1 14:16TORTim Brent: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:03BUFMike Weber: Slashing2 min
- P2 6:05TORMike Komisarek: Roughing2 min · PPG
- P2 7:53TORDarryl Boyce: Tripping2 min
- P2 13:09BUFCody McCormick: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:09TORMike Komisarek: Fighting5 min
- P2 13:09TORTomas Kaberle: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 13:09BUFPaul Byron: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 17:21BUFJason Pominville: Tripping2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gaustad won the faceoff against Grabovski
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestSjostrom – Brent – Rosehill3:28
xG 0.12–0.00 (100%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Sjostrom – Kessel – Bozak5:18
xG 0.09–0.13 (41%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Crabb – Brent – Rosehill4:00
xG 0.01–0.06 (19%)attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg8:05
xG 0.15–0.20 (42%)attempts 5–6goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- Gunnarsson – Schenn3:07
xG 0.05–0.06 (49%)attempts 2–3goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Gunnarsson7:30
xG 0.08–0.14 (37%)attempts 4–7goals 0–0
- Kaberle – Schenn14:33
xG 0.27–0.58 (32%)attempts 13–17goals 0–1
Buffalo Sabres
Forward lines
- bestHecht – Pominville – Vanek11:05
xG 0.77–0.12 (87%)attempts 15–8goals 2–0
- Niedermayer – Grier – Gaustad11:46
xG 0.70–0.14 (83%)attempts 11–11goals 1–0
- Connolly – Stafford – Ennis10:05
xG 0.20–0.14 (59%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- McCormick – Gerbe – Byron7:22
xG 0.10–0.11 (47%)attempts 5–6goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestMorrisonn – Weber15:28
xG 0.82–0.19 (81%)attempts 16–9goals 2–0
- Sekera – Myers13:55
xG 0.86–0.33 (72%)attempts 14–18goals 2–0
- Leopold – Montador13:50
xG 0.37–0.25 (59%)attempts 18–12goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
BUF's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line BUF is favoured, below it TOR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Buffalo Sabres win this game 86% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (BUF − TOR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).