Sat, Feb 5, 2011·RBC Center, Raleigh
Atlanta Thrashers 3, Carolina Hurricanes 4 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 111 | 09 | 214 | 03 | 337 |
| CAR | 011 | 116 | 23 | 17 | 437 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 12:33ATLNiclas BergforsAssists: Bryan Little, Johnny Oduya · Snap, 0.12 xG1–0
- P2 8:16CAREric StaalPPAssists: Tuomo Ruutu, Jeff Skinner · Wrist, 0.32 xG1–1
- P3 8:37CARBrandon SutterAssists: Jiri Tlusty, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.08 xG1–2
- P3 12:14ATLBrent SopelUnassisted · Slap, 0.01 xG2–2
- P3 12:42CARJiri TlustyAssists: Patrick Dwyer, Ian White · Wrist, 0.06 xG2–3
- P3 18:36ATLZach BogosianAssists: Bryan Little, Rich Peverley · Slap, 0.03 xG3–3
- OT 2:48CARErik ColeGWGAssists: Jamie McBain, Joni Pitkanen · Snap, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (16)
- P1 4:02CARPatrick Dwyer: Kneeing2 min
- P1 6:10ATLOndrej Pavelec: Delaying game illegal play by goalie2 min
- P1 19:37ATLBryan Little: Tripping2 min
- P2 7:22ATLJohnny Oduya: Interference2 min · PPG
- P2 9:35CARJiri Tlusty: Tripping2 min
- P2 11:16ATLEvander Kane: Roughing2 min
- P2 11:16CARIan White: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02CARRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 15:02ATLPatrice Cormier: Cross checking2 min
- P2 18:20ATLFreddy Modin: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:20ATLPatrice Cormier: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P3 3:48ATLArturs Kulda: Hooking2 min
- P3 4:57CARJoni Pitkanen: Interference2 min
- P3 5:39CARErik Cole: Tripping2 min
- P3 9:10CARJoni Pitkanen: Hooking2 min
- P3 15:07CARJiri Tlusty: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sutter won the faceoff against Little
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Atlanta Thrashers
Forward lines
- bestThorburn – Stapleton – Cormier5:20
xG 0.22–0.02 (90%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Modin – Peverley – Burmistrov5:09
xG 0.26–0.15 (63%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Antropov – Stewart – Kane6:54
xG 0.10–0.14 (43%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ladd – Bergfors – Little6:34
xG 0.12–0.34 (26%)attempts 7–5goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestOduya – Bogosian2:44
xG 0.07–0.01 (89%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Hainsey – Bogosian9:24
xG 0.21–0.35 (38%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Sopel – Kulda8:50
xG 0.29–0.51 (37%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestSamsonov – Cole – Staal9:08
xG 0.61–0.20 (75%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter7:19
xG 0.25–0.02 (91%)attempts 6–4goals 2–0
- Bodie – Carter – Boychuk5:11
xG 0.27–0.21 (56%)attempts 6–5goals 0–0
- Ruutu – LaRose – Skinner10:04
xG 0.30–0.36 (45%)attempts 8–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestPitkanen – McBain8:11
xG 0.38–0.03 (92%)attempts 7–4goals 1–0
- Harrison – White4:45
xG 0.35–0.08 (82%)attempts 3–5goals 0–0
- Corvo – Gleason7:59
xG 0.29–0.21 (58%)attempts 6–8goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CAR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CAR is favoured, below it ATL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CAR − ATL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).