Sat, Feb 5, 2011·Nationwide Arena, Columbus
Edmonton Oilers 3, Columbus Blue Jackets 4
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| EDM | 210 | 08 | 18 | 326 |
| CBJ | 110 | 19 | 215 | 434 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 2:14EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Linus Omark, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–0
- P1 7:44EDMDustin PennerAssists: Ales Hemsky, Ladislav Smid · Slap, 0.05 xG2–0
- P1 14:19CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Antoine Vermette, Fedor Tyutin · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
- P2 14:35CBJKristian HuseliusAssists: R.J. Umberger, Grant Clitsome · Wrist, 0.12 xG2–2
- P3 5:31EDMMagnus PaajarviAssists: Linus Omark, Sam Gagner · Wrist, 0.11 xG3–2
- P3 13:44CBJR.J. UmbergerAssists: Kris Russell, Kristian Huselius · Wrist, 0.03 xG3–3
- P3 16:00CBJKristian HuseliusGWGAssists: R.J. Umberger, Kris Russell · Wrist, 0.04 xG3–4
Penalties (10)
- P1 5:13EDMJim Vandermeer: Slashing2 min
- P1 5:13CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P1 8:47EDMLadislav Smid: High sticking2 min
- P1 10:11CBJJakub Voracek: Tripping2 min
- P1 12:09CBJDerek Dorsett: Slashing2 min
- P1 17:36EDMJim Vandermeer: Cross checking2 min
- P2 3:18CBJRick Nash: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P2 3:18CBJDerick Brassard: Unsportsmanlike conduct2 min
- P2 9:54CBJJakub Voracek: Hooking2 min
- P3 10:28EDMAndrew Cogliano: Interference2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Vermette won the faceoff against Horcoff
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Edmonton Oilers
Forward lines
- Cogliano – Eberle – Hall9:46
xG 0.24–0.22 (52%)attempts 7–7goals 0–0
- Gagner – Omark – Paajarvi7:53
xG 0.48–0.53 (47%)attempts 7–12goals 2–2
- Horcoff – Hemsky – Penner11:15
xG 0.28–0.65 (30%)attempts 7–10goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestGilbert – Peckham13:58
xG 0.89–0.46 (66%)attempts 17–14goals 2–0
- Strudwick – Vandermeer5:56
xG 0.37–0.14 (73%)attempts 4–3goals 0–1
- Vandermeer – Smid6:39
xG 0.09–0.29 (25%)attempts 4–6goals 0–1
Columbus Blue Jackets
Forward lines
- bestPahlsson – Murray – Dorsett11:01
xG 0.62–0.10 (86%)attempts 9–5goals 0–0
- Huselius – Vermette – Umberger8:55
xG 0.39–0.24 (62%)attempts 10–7goals 3–0
- Vermette – Umberger – Calvert2:01
xG 0.09–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
- Nash – Brassard – Voracek10:48
xG 0.48–0.72 (40%)attempts 13–11goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- bestClitsome – Russell12:04
xG 0.81–0.60 (57%)attempts 19–10goals 4–2
- Hejda – Moore10:26
xG 0.63–0.50 (56%)attempts 11–9goals 0–1
- Tyutin – Methot15:29
xG 0.43–0.33 (56%)attempts 9–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
CBJ's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line CBJ is favoured, below it EDM. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Edmonton Oilers win this game 53% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (CBJ − EDM), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).