Mon, Feb 7, 2011·Joe Louis Arena, Detroit
New York Rangers 2, Detroit Red Wings 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYR | 013 | 016 | 218 | 247 |
| DET | 09 | 121 | 25 | 335 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 2:52DETPavel DatsyukAssists: Jiri Hudler, Daniel Cleary · Wrist, 0.43 xG0–1
- P3 3:09NYRDerek StepanAssists: Matt Gilroy, Wojtek Wolski · Wrist, 0.12 xG1–1
- P3 5:04DETJiri HudlerAssists: Jonathan Ericsson, Pavel Datsyuk · Snap, 0.05 xG1–2
- P3 14:37DETDrew MillerGWGAssists: Justin Abdelkader · Backhand, 0.27 xG1–3
- P3 15:55NYRBrandon DubinskyAssists: Sean Avery, Marian Gaborik · Snap, 0.04 xG2–3
Penalties (6)
- P1 3:27NYRMichael Sauer: Tripping2 min
- P1 19:16DETNiklas Kronwall: Holding2 min
- P2 6:49NYRBrandon Prust: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 6:30DETJakub Kindl: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 16:20DETJonathan Ericsson: High sticking2 min
- P3 17:36DETJustin Abdelkader: High sticking double minor4 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Boyle won the faceoff against Abdelkader
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New York Rangers
Forward lines
- bestProspal – Gaborik – Christensen5:07
xG 1.00–0.29 (78%)attempts 11–11goals 0–0
- Wolski – Stepan – Zuccarello6:57
xG 0.57–0.02 (97%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Prospal – Gaborik – Dubinsky3:19
xG 0.29–0.05 (85%)attempts 6–1goals 0–1
- Callahan – Anisimov – Zuccarello3:51
xG 0.08–0.02 (77%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestStaal – Girardi15:40
xG 1.76–0.56 (76%)attempts 20–23goals 0–0
- Del Zotto – Gilroy12:55
xG 0.75–0.44 (63%)attempts 19–10goals 1–1
- Sauer – McDonagh16:04
xG 0.52–1.03 (34%)attempts 18–15goals 1–2
Detroit Red Wings
Forward lines
- Cleary – Datsyuk – Hudler11:20
xG 0.87–0.88 (50%)attempts 13–10goals 2–0
- Filppula – Eaves – Abdelkader8:09
xG 0.12–0.30 (28%)attempts 5–10goals 0–0
- Draper – Miller – Helm8:44
xG 0.23–0.47 (33%)attempts 7–13goals 0–1
- Eaves – Abdelkader – Helm2:28
xG 0.00–0.32 (0%)attempts 1–6goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestLidstrom – Kronwall13:37
xG 1.06–0.59 (64%)attempts 19–18goals 1–0
- Salei – Kronwall3:10
xG 0.38–0.06 (86%)attempts 5–3goals 1–0
- Salei – Ericsson2:28
xG 0.00–0.18 (0%)attempts 0–5goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DET's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DET is favoured, below it NYR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New York Rangers win this game 72% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DET − NYR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).