Mon, Feb 7, 2011·Jobing.com Arena, Glendale
Colorado Avalanche 0, Phoenix Coyotes 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 06 | 08 | 012 | 026 |
| PHX | 113 | 16 | 17 | 326 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 3:07PHXRadim VrbataGWGAssists: Martin Hanzal, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.14 xG0–1
- P2 17:44PHXScottie UpshallAssists: Kyle Turris, Shane Doan · Wrist, 0.12 xG0–2
- P3 9:18PHXRadim VrbataPPAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.23 xG0–3
Penalties (13)
- P1 18:20COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P2 10:20COLKevin Shattenkirk: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:52PHXKeith Yandle: Interference2 min
- P2 14:06PHXSami Lepisto: Interference2 min
- P3 5:37PHXRadim Vrbata: Hooking2 min
- P3 7:30COLJohn-Michael Liles: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 7:30PHXMartin Hanzal: Slashing2 min
- P3 8:33COLRyan O'Byrne: Hooking2 min
- P3 11:17PHXOliver Ekman-Larsson: Holding the stick2 min
- P3 17:05COLCody McLeod: Roughing2 min
- P3 17:05COLCody McLeod: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:05PHXDerek Morris: Fighting5 min
- P3 17:05PHXKeith Yandle: Slashing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Dupuis
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- bestHejduk – Stastny – Duchene2:07
xG 0.10–0.00 (100%)attempts 1–0goals 0–0
- Jones – Porter – Stastny7:05
xG 0.26–0.16 (62%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- Winnik – Galiardi – O'Reilly6:39
xG 0.05–0.05 (50%)attempts 3–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Stewart – Duchene7:56
xG 0.30–0.34 (47%)attempts 8–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestFoote – Hunwick2:09
xG 0.18–0.05 (77%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
- Foote – Wilson11:18
xG 0.21–0.15 (59%)attempts 10–9goals 0–1
- Wilson – Shattenkirk2:42
xG 0.03–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- bestDoan – Upshall – Turris9:33
xG 0.43–0.22 (67%)attempts 15–8goals 1–0
- Doan – Upshall – Korpikoski2:34
xG 0.07–0.07 (51%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal11:37
xG 0.44–0.45 (50%)attempts 11–10goals 1–0
- Bissonnette – Korpikoski – Ebbett5:22
xG 0.05–0.12 (29%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestAucoin – Lepisto15:40
xG 0.48–0.29 (62%)attempts 15–12goals 1–0
- Aucoin – Yandle3:04
xG 0.18–0.07 (72%)attempts 5–2goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Lepisto3:35
xG 0.07–0.18 (29%)attempts 3–3goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHX's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHX is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 55% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHX − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).