Tue, Feb 8, 2011·Verizon Center, Washington
San Jose Sharks 2, Washington Capitals 0
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SJS | 015 | 012 | 29 | 236 |
| WSH | 09 | 04 | 012 | 025 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 11:55SJSLogan CoutureGWGAssists: Ben Eager, Kent Huskins · Wrist, 0.02 xG1–0
- P3 14:07SJSDan BoyleAssists: Dany Heatley, Devin Setoguchi · Slap, 0.03 xG2–0
Penalties (3)
- P1 15:29SJSJamal Mayers: Hooking2 min
- P1 18:39WSHJohn Erskine: Cross checking2 min
- P3 17:09SJSNiclas Wallin: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Gordon won the faceoff against Thornton
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
San Jose Sharks
Forward lines
- bestThornton – Heatley – Setoguchi11:14
xG 0.86–0.13 (86%)attempts 18–7goals 1–0
- Wellwood – Eager – Couture12:27
xG 0.44–0.27 (62%)attempts 18–9goals 1–0
- Mayers – Nichol – McCarthy8:21
xG 0.21–0.07 (75%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Marleau – Clowe – Pavelski11:27
xG 0.40–0.40 (50%)attempts 16–15goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBoyle – Murray17:22
xG 0.67–0.26 (72%)attempts 23–17goals 1–0
- Huskins – Vlasic16:47
xG 0.52–0.25 (67%)attempts 20–12goals 1–0
- Wallin – Demers13:53
xG 0.85–0.76 (53%)attempts 18–13goals 0–0
Washington Capitals
Forward lines
- bestLaich – Semin – Perreault12:48
xG 0.49–0.32 (61%)attempts 13–13goals 0–0
- Bradley – Steckel – Gordon10:01
xG 0.25–0.17 (60%)attempts 6–9goals 0–0
- Knuble – Hendricks – Johansson10:42
xG 0.41–0.71 (37%)attempts 9–15goals 0–0
- Chimera – Ovechkin – Backstrom15:08
xG 0.24–0.72 (25%)attempts 18–24goals 0–2
Defence pairs
- Alzner – Carlson19:12
xG 0.57–0.64 (47%)attempts 22–28goals 0–2
- Erskine – Sloan13:53
xG 0.27–0.44 (38%)attempts 9–14goals 0–0
- Hannan – Schultz15:11
xG 0.47–0.82 (37%)attempts 12–20goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
WSH's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line WSH is favoured, below it SJS. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, San Jose Sharks win this game 74% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (WSH − SJS), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).