Tue, Feb 8, 2011·BankAtlantic Center, Sunrise
St. Louis Blues 2, Florida Panthers 1
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 07 | 114 | 17 | 228 |
| FLA | 111 | 011 | 09 | 131 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 6:45FLADennis WidemanPPAssists: Stephen Weiss, Michael Frolik · Slap, 0.06 xG0–1
- P2 19:00STLDavid BackesAssists: Andy McDonald, Brad Boyes · Wrist, 0.14 xG1–1
- P3 16:00STLMatt D'AgostiniGWGAssists: Vladimir Sobotka, Barret Jackman · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–1
Penalties (12)
- P1 5:32STLBrad Winchester: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P1 5:51STLRoman Polak: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P1 10:41FLADennis Wideman: Holding the stick2 min
- P1 13:06STLMatt D'Agostini: Too many men on the ice2 min
- P1 15:36FLAJason Garrison: Holding2 min
- P1 0:00STLB.J. Crombeen: Fighting5 min
- P1 0:00FLABryan Allen: Fighting5 min
- P2 4:07FLAMichael Frolik: Boarding2 min
- P2 4:28STLVladimir Sobotka: High sticking2 min
- P2 7:02STLVladimir Sobotka: Roughing2 min
- P2 19:31FLADennis Wideman: Interference2 min
- P3 2:16FLASteve Bernier: High sticking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Higgins won the faceoff against Berglund
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
St. Louis Blues
Forward lines
- bestSteen – Oshie – Berglund7:06
xG 0.62–0.09 (87%)attempts 7–4goals 0–0
- McDonald – Backes – D'Agostini2:06
xG 0.65–0.13 (83%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- McClement – Sobotka – D'Agostini3:29
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 1–3goals 0–0
- McDonald – Boyes – Backes8:03
xG 0.38–0.45 (46%)attempts 8–8goals 1–0
Defence pairs
- bestBrewer – Johnson7:51
xG 0.87–0.21 (80%)attempts 14–7goals 0–0
- Nikitin – Polak6:25
xG 0.24–0.19 (56%)attempts 5–5goals 0–0
- Jackman – Pietrangelo8:00
xG 0.20–0.19 (51%)attempts 3–3goals 2–0
Florida Panthers
Forward lines
- bestReasoner – Olesz – Timmins4:28
xG 0.20–0.02 (89%)attempts 5–1goals 0–0
- Booth – Santorelli – Repik6:30
xG 0.26–0.20 (57%)attempts 8–5goals 0–0
- Bernier – Booth – Santorelli4:49
xG 0.11–0.05 (68%)attempts 4–2goals 0–1
- Hordichuk – Bernier – Timmins2:00
xG 0.02–0.00 (100%)attempts 2–0goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWeaver – Garrison10:05
xG 0.64–0.06 (92%)attempts 11–3goals 0–0
- Allen – Wideman8:46
xG 0.32–0.17 (65%)attempts 10–3goals 0–1
- Wideman – Kulikov2:19
xG 0.11–0.04 (73%)attempts 4–1goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
FLA's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line FLA is favoured, below it STL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Florida Panthers win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (FLA − STL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).