Wed, Feb 9, 2011·Xcel Energy Center, St. Paul
Colorado Avalanche 2, Minnesota Wild 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| COL | 110 | 010 | 15 | 225 |
| MIN | 214 | 14 | 06 | 324 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 15:00MINAntti MiettinenPPAssists: Matt Cullen, Brent Burns · Slap, 0.04 xG0–1
- P1 15:11COLDavid JonesAssists: Matt Duchene · Wrist, 0.13 xG1–1
- P1 15:51MINMartin HavlatAssists: Kyle Brodziak, Cal Clutterbuck · Wrist, 0.11 xG1–2
- P2 10:42MINJohn MaddenGWGAssists: Matt Cullen, Jared Spurgeon · Snap, 0.04 xG1–3
- P3 0:23COLDavid JonesAssists: Milan Hejduk · Wrist, 0.11 xG2–3
Penalties (12)
- P1 14:03COLRyan O'Byrne: Boarding2 min · PPG
- P2 1:06MINBrent Burns: Interference2 min
- P2 5:16MINMikko Koivu: Tripping2 min
- P3 4:48COLMatt Hunwick: Tripping2 min
- P3 6:27COLDaniel Winnik: Cross checking2 min
- P3 7:23MINBrent Burns: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:23COLBrandon Yip: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:23MINCal Clutterbuck: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:23COLRyan Wilson: Roughing2 min
- P3 7:23MINMartin Havlat: Roughing2 min
- P3 11:37MINBrent Burns: Delaying game puck over glass2 min
- P3 18:09COLMilan Hejduk: Hooking2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Stastny won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Colorado Avalanche
Forward lines
- Stastny – Stewart – Galiardi9:28
xG 0.13–0.19 (40%)attempts 9–6goals 0–1
- Porter – Yip – Winnik2:26
xG 0.00–0.08 (0%)attempts 1–2goals 0–0
- Dupuis – Winnik – McLeod2:24
xG 0.01–0.13 (9%)attempts 2–4goals 0–0
- Hejduk – Jones – Duchene11:01
xG 0.32–0.50 (39%)attempts 9–11goals 2–0
Defence pairs
- bestHunwick – Shattenkirk4:12
xG 0.34–0.15 (69%)attempts 5–5goals 2–0
- Wilson – Shattenkirk4:05
xG 0.14–0.07 (66%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
- Liles – O'Byrne9:28
xG 0.26–0.29 (47%)attempts 11–6goals 0–1
Minnesota Wild
Forward lines
- bestBrunette – Miettinen – Koivu11:26
xG 0.39–0.16 (71%)attempts 9–8goals 0–0
- Havlat – Brodziak – Clutterbuck8:27
xG 0.40–0.30 (57%)attempts 10–8goals 1–2
- Cullen – Kobasew – Bouchard7:31
xG 0.19–0.10 (66%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
- Madden – Nystrom – Staubitz5:18
xG 0.16–0.14 (53%)attempts 4–3goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestBarker – Spurgeon9:15
xG 0.53–0.22 (70%)attempts 8–12goals 0–0
- Schultz – Burns16:58
xG 0.66–0.50 (57%)attempts 19–16goals 1–1
- Zanon – Stoner15:36
xG 0.44–0.29 (60%)attempts 11–11goals 0–1
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
MIN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line MIN is favoured, below it COL. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Minnesota Wild win this game 73% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (MIN − COL), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).