Wed, Feb 9, 2011·American Airlines Center, Dallas
Phoenix Coyotes 3, Dallas Stars 2 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PHX | 114 | 07 | 110 | 14 | 335 |
| DAL | 17 | 17 | 04 | 00 | 218 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 10:48DALSteve OttAssists: Brad Richards, Loui Eriksson · Wrist, 0.25 xG0–1
- P1 18:22PHXMichal RozsivalPPAssists: Taylor Pyatt, Lee Stempniak · Wrist, 0.15 xG1–1
- P2 5:56DALBrad RichardsAssists: Nicklas Grossmann, Brenden Morrow · Wrist, 0.10 xG1–2
- P3 5:37PHXMikkel BoedkerAssists: Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.05 xG2–2
- OT 1:13PHXRadim VrbataPPGWGAssists: Keith Yandle, Ray Whitney · Wrist, 0.15 xG3–2
Penalties (10)
- P1 14:30PHXScottie Upshall: High sticking2 min
- P1 14:30DALMike Ribeiro: High sticking2 min
- P1 16:38DALTom Wandell: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P2 3:49DALNicklas Grossmann: Slashing2 min
- P2 7:54PHXDerek Morris: Holding2 min
- P2 16:07DALBrenden Morrow: Roughing2 min
- P2 16:07PHXSami Lepisto: Roughing2 min
- P3 12:39DALJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:39PHXLauri Korpikoski: Diving2 min
- P3 19:41DALJamie Langenbrunner: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Belanger won the faceoff against Wandell
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Phoenix Coyotes
Forward lines
- Fiddler – Bissonnette – Boedker2:28
xG 0.00–0.00attempts 0–2goals 0–0
- Whitney – Vrbata – Hanzal13:05
xG 0.23–0.27 (46%)attempts 6–11goals 0–1
- Doan – Upshall – Korpikoski10:31
xG 0.13–0.33 (29%)attempts 8–11goals 0–0
- Belanger – Pyatt – Stempniak11:08
xG 0.31–0.69 (31%)attempts 6–12goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestRozsival – Lepisto2:39
xG 0.07–0.00 (100%)attempts 3–1goals 0–0
- Aucoin – Lepisto14:13
xG 0.37–0.35 (51%)attempts 8–15goals 0–0
- Rozsival – Ekman-Larsson11:11
xG 0.12–0.24 (35%)attempts 4–12goals 1–0
Dallas Stars
Forward lines
- bestRichards – Eriksson – Neal14:33
xG 0.48–0.31 (61%)attempts 14–8goals 0–0
- Ott – Wandell – Vincour8:49
xG 0.14–0.10 (58%)attempts 9–7goals 0–0
- Sutherby – Wathier – Gagnon2:41
xG 0.00–0.07 (0%)attempts 2–2goals 0–1
- Langenbrunner – Morrow – Ribeiro15:15
xG 0.19–0.50 (28%)attempts 14–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWoywitka – Daley14:07
xG 0.55–0.31 (64%)attempts 16–12goals 0–0
- Skrastins – Fistric9:36
xG 0.52–0.28 (65%)attempts 7–5goals 1–1
- Robidas – Grossmann16:12
xG 0.14–0.37 (27%)attempts 15–11goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
DAL's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line DAL is favoured, below it PHX. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Phoenix Coyotes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (DAL − PHX), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).