Wed, Feb 9, 2011·Rogers Arena, Vancouver
Anaheim Ducks 4, Vancouver Canucks 3
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ANA | 113 | 26 | 15 | 424 |
| VAN | 010 | 110 | 218 | 338 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P1 0:56ANAJason BlakeAssists: Teemu Selanne, Toni Lydman · Wrist, 0.21 xG1–0
- P2 3:26ANABrandon McMillanAssists: Dan Sexton, Andreas Lilja · Deflected, 0.17 xG2–0
- P2 4:12ANABobby RyanAssists: Ryan Getzlaf, Corey Perry · Backhand, 0.05 xG3–0
- P2 7:22VANDaniel SedinPPAssists: Mikael Samuelsson, Ryan Kesler · Slap, 0.05 xG3–1
- P3 5:42VANAlexandre BurrowsAssists: Henrik Sedin, Daniel Sedin · Wrist, 0.10 xG3–2
- P3 6:10ANABobby RyanGWGAssists: Teemu Selanne, Lubomir Visnovsky · Wrist, 0.08 xG4–2
- P3 19:39VANRyan KeslerAssists: Daniel Sedin, Kevin Bieksa · Wrist, 0.53 xG4–3
Penalties (3)
- P1 13:43VANKevin Bieksa: Roughing2 min
- P2 1:06VANRyan Kesler: Holding2 min
- P2 6:23ANATeemu Selanne: Tripping2 min · PPG
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Sedin won the faceoff against Koivu
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Anaheim Ducks
Forward lines
- bestSelanne – Koivu – Blake14:15
xG 1.12–0.74 (60%)attempts 14–13goals 0–0
- Lapierre – McMillan – Sexton10:36
xG 0.36–0.39 (48%)attempts 4–14goals 1–0
- Marchant – Parros – Chipchura3:59
xG 0.02–0.06 (27%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
- Getzlaf – Perry – Ryan15:33
xG 0.47–0.83 (36%)attempts 11–22goals 1–1
Defence pairs
- bestVisnovsky – Fowler3:36
xG 0.62–0.11 (85%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Lydman – Visnovsky18:51
xG 1.02–0.58 (64%)attempts 14–19goals 1–0
- Lilja – Fowler15:34
xG 0.66–0.51 (56%)attempts 9–20goals 2–0
Vancouver Canucks
Forward lines
- bestGlass – Hodgson – Volpatti3:21
xG 0.55–0.02 (96%)attempts 4–2goals 0–0
- Malhotra – Torres – Hansen8:49
xG 0.28–0.10 (73%)attempts 12–2goals 0–0
- Samuelsson – Kesler – Raymond13:15
xG 0.44–0.29 (61%)attempts 13–10goals 0–2
- Malhotra – Hansen – Hodgson3:54
xG 0.00–0.03 (0%)attempts 0–1goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestRome – Tanev5:54
xG 0.49–0.10 (82%)attempts 9–1goals 0–0
- Ehrhoff – Alberts7:02
xG 0.22–0.11 (65%)attempts 3–5goals 0–1
- Bieksa – Alberts4:35
xG 0.02–0.05 (29%)attempts 2–2goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
VAN's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line VAN is favoured, below it ANA. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Vancouver Canucks win this game 58% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (VAN − ANA), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).