Thu, Feb 10, 2011·Air Canada Centre, Toronto
New Jersey Devils 2, Toronto Maple Leafs 1 (OT)
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | OT | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NJD | 011 | 013 | 113 | 12 | 239 |
| TOR | 08 | 113 | 010 | 01 | 132 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P2 5:18TORNikolay KuleminAssists: Phil Kessel, Mikhail Grabovski · Wrist, 0.26 xG0–1
- P3 3:23NJDDainius ZubrusAssists: Mark Fayne, Patrik Elias · Tip-in, 0.07 xG1–1
- OT 4:36NJDIlya KovalchukGWGAssists: Anssi Salmela · Wrist, 0.04 xG2–1
Penalties (14)
- P1 9:54NJDPatrik Elias: Tripping2 min
- P1 13:36NJDDavid Clarkson: Fighting5 min
- P1 13:36TORJay Rosehill: Fighting5 min
- P2 1:36NJDColin White: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:39TORColby Armstrong: High sticking2 min
- P2 10:09NJDMark Fayne: Hooking2 min
- P2 11:14TORJoffrey Lupul: Slashing2 min
- P2 13:31NJDMark Fraser: Slashing2 min
- P3 2:38NJDMark Fraser: Roughing2 min
- P3 2:38TORColby Armstrong: Roughing2 min
- P3 4:02NJDJason Arnott: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 8:49TORJay Rosehill: Interference goalkeeper2 min
- P3 11:56TORDarryl Boyce: Tripping2 min
- P3 12:18NJDBrian Rolston: Holding2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Bozak won the faceoff against Zajac
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
New Jersey Devils
Forward lines
- bestMair – Clarkson – Pelley6:58
xG 0.38–0.04 (90%)attempts 14–4goals 0–0
- Arnott – Zharkov – Tedenby5:42
xG 0.19–0.03 (85%)attempts 7–2goals 0–0
- Rolston – Elias – Zubrus9:34
xG 0.56–0.52 (52%)attempts 16–10goals 0–0
- Kovalchuk – Zajac – Palmieri8:58
xG 0.07–0.26 (21%)attempts 8–8goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestWhite – Fayne8:20
xG 0.43–0.17 (71%)attempts 14–5goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fraser7:46
xG 0.33–0.14 (71%)attempts 15–4goals 0–0
- Tallinder – Fayne3:35
xG 0.12–0.09 (58%)attempts 3–7goals 0–0
Toronto Maple Leafs
Forward lines
- bestGrabovski – Kessel – Kulemin9:52
xG 0.79–0.56 (58%)attempts 14–13goals 1–0
- Lupul – MacArthur – Bozak12:08
xG 0.25–0.26 (49%)attempts 10–13goals 0–0
- Armstrong – Boyce – Versteeg9:31
xG 0.16–0.22 (41%)attempts 10–10goals 0–0
- Crabb – Brent – Rosehill4:22
xG 0.01–0.19 (3%)attempts 2–9goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestKaberle – Schenn16:09
xG 0.70–0.58 (54%)attempts 16–16goals 0–0
- Phaneuf – Aulie14:17
xG 0.30–0.38 (44%)attempts 11–17goals 0–0
- Komisarek – Lebda5:35
xG 0.06–0.17 (26%)attempts 6–6goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
TOR's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line TOR is favoured, below it NJD. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, New Jersey Devils win this game 60% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (TOR − NJD), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).