Thu, Feb 10, 2011·Wells Fargo Center, Philadelphia
Carolina Hurricanes 1, Philadelphia Flyers 2
Expected result
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
By period
Goals and shots on goal in each period.
| Team | P1 | P2 | P3 | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAR | 05 | 012 | 115 | 132 |
| PHI | 07 | 07 | 211 | 225 |
Goals, with shots on goal in grey.
Scoring
Every goal, with the change it made to the home team's win probability.
- P3 0:18PHIJeff CarterPPAssists: Mike Richards, Chris Pronger · Wrist, 0.04 xG0–1
- P3 11:27PHIDaniel BrièrePPGWGAssists: Claude Giroux, Matt Carle · Wrist, 0.22 xG0–2
- P3 12:07CARTuomo RuutuAssists: Chad LaRose · Wrist, 0.22 xG1–2
Penalties (11)
- P1 1:16CARBrett Carson: High sticking2 min
- P1 17:54PHIDaniel Carcillo: Interference2 min
- P2 7:59CARRyan Carter: Roughing2 min
- P2 9:00PHIKimmo Timonen: Interference2 min
- P2 14:38PHIMike Richards: Slashing2 min
- P2 17:41PHIDaniel Brière: Hooking2 min
- P2 18:41CARTuomo Ruutu: Slashing2 min · PPG
- P3 1:28PHIChris Pronger: Slashing2 min
- P3 5:20CARJeff Skinner: Charging2 min
- P3 10:11CARBrandon Sutter: Tripping2 min · PPG
- P3 15:40CARChad LaRose: Roughing2 min
Replay
Watch the game unfold on the ice: every shot, hit, turnover and faceoff appears as it happened, then fades. Drag the timeline to jump; goals are marked on it.
20:00
P1
- P1 20:00Staal won the faceoff against Giroux
- Goal
- Shot
- Miss
- Block
- Hit
- Takeaway
- Giveaway
- Faceoff
- Penalty
The numbers
Team totals, side by side.
Line combinations that worked
Model-basedEach team's forward lines and defence pairs at 5-on-5 (two minutes or more together), best first by expected goals for minus against.
Carolina Hurricanes
Forward lines
- bestRuutu – LaRose – Skinner10:57
xG 1.31–0.34 (79%)attempts 12–9goals 1–0
- Bodie – Carter – Boychuk4:52
xG 0.42–0.07 (86%)attempts 8–4goals 0–0
- Dwyer – Tlusty – Sutter7:51
xG 0.14–0.03 (84%)attempts 8–2goals 0–0
- Samsonov – Cole – Staal9:46
xG 0.25–0.46 (35%)attempts 9–10goals 0–0
Defence pairs
- bestGleason – White8:45
xG 0.70–0.27 (72%)attempts 10–7goals 0–0
- Carson – McBain6:40
xG 0.18–0.08 (68%)attempts 7–3goals 0–0
- Gleason – McBain3:15
xG 0.26–0.22 (54%)attempts 2–5goals 0–0
Philadelphia Flyers
Forward lines
- bestCarter – Giroux – Nodl9:10
xG 0.42–0.14 (75%)attempts 11–7goals 0–0
- Brière – Hartnell – Leino10:07
xG 0.33–0.29 (53%)attempts 9–12goals 0–0
- Zherdev – Richards – van Riemsdyk5:32
xG 0.07–0.06 (55%)attempts 5–4goals 0–0
- Betts – Carcillo – Powe4:46
xG 0.13–0.70 (15%)attempts 2–7goals 0–1
Defence pairs
- bestTimonen – Coburn9:48
xG 0.46–0.15 (76%)attempts 10–5goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Carle2:22
xG 0.02–0.09 (18%)attempts 1–7goals 0–0
- O'Donnell – Meszaros9:33
xG 0.29–0.41 (42%)attempts 8–9goals 0–0
How the game flowed
Model-basedChance quality for each side, minute by minute, with pressure underneath.
Running total of expected goals for each team. Steep climbs are spells of pressure; dots are goals. Shaded bands mark power plays (team colour), 4-on-4 or 3-on-3 (grey) and empty nets.
Tempo: attempts, hits and takeaways per minute
Win probability
Model-basedHow each goal and each minute changed the likely winner.
PHI's chance of winning through the game. Above the middle line PHI is favoured, below it CAR. Dots are goals.
Did the better team win?
Every shot replayed 10,000 times, scoring with its expected-goal probability.
Based on shot quality alone, Carolina Hurricanes win this game 70% of the time.
Simulated goal difference (PHI − CAR), 10,000 replays
The outlined bar is the actual result (excluding the shootout).